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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 11:48 am 
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mfreak wrote:
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with probability you can always infer it with real world results. factor in a bit of standard deviation and variation and boom, you have a statistical aggregated number that reflects real life examples. im not saying 50% probability = 5/10 rockets hitting. that is the EXPECTED NUMBER to hit based on the probability. in reality, even with a massive SD of 1 for rocket hitting, 99.97% of the time, the rockets hitting will be between 2-8. this is not the case when the real life probability is lower than 1/10 rockets hitting.


I think there is a misunderstanding, about the way I am thinking and about the way you are thinking. Let me clarify this misunderstanding in this post. And for this post, you HAVE to take the Israel Palestine missile crisis as an essential part of the argument, simply because I am not talking just MATH here, rather a probablity issue that is deeply tied to the issue we are discussing - the missile crisis.

Yes probablity has real world implications. But why are you going after Standard deviation anyway? Standard deviation is based on a set of REAL WORLD ACTUAL results, plotted as a normal distribution and then you go ahead to find how much the data deviates from the average. And then you can even go on to find the probability. Unless you wanna collect 5 year data about missiles fired into Israel, and their success rate and then plot a normal distribution, this is irrelevant. Now I have said in one of my previous posts, and even in subsequent posts that the number of missiles hitting Israel, have a probablity of NEAR zero. This is NOT in question here. Yes, every missile fired has a VERY slim chance of hitting Israel simply because they have many obstacles to cross, which is primarily the Israeli air defence. THEREFORE a missie's probablity to hit Israel is NOT 50% but near zero. This has been repeated tons of times and this is not in debate here.

you were saying the likelihood was 50% to hit. i was allowing for a degree of variance to demonstrate what real world results would be. hence the one off mention of SD

What is in debate however, is the way you look at things. I am PURPOSEFULLY ignoring Israeli air defence. Think of a hypothetical situation, where there is absolutely NO air defence, and a missile is fired. And you do know that these missiles are fired from a distance of like 5-10 kms, far less than their actual range. Which is pretty close. Now tell me, what the probablity of that missile is to hit Israel? If you remove all obstacles, the probablity is 50%. Because the missile might fail, or succeed. Therefore 50% probablity. Therefore the 2 outcomes ARE indeed equal here.

The reason that I WILL NOT consider the air defence Israel puts up, is simply because the air defence by itself, is to reduce this very basic 50% chance of success to near zero. I hope you understand that.

Even without the israeli missile defence, the outcomes wouldnt be a 50/50. In fact, I would say that 10% missing completely leaves 90% hitting civilian populations. thats ~85% if you factor in other things that may effect the result. not 50% hitting/missing (shock). but if you factor out the palestinian aim and training. then what is the point? what is the point of that "statistic" that "fact"? it has no real world relevance and doesnt account for any real world results. the claim of 50% on the basis of ignoring the missile defense serves no purpose. maths has no opinion, you cant apply your biases to force facts, to force statistics.

So, in short, i dont understand how you can justify supporting the claim of 50% even now. even after you admit you ignore real world results. your "very basic 50%" has no relevance in math or in the real world. its based on opinion and i have never heard of someone force probability like you have done so. note: i admit that the actual hit rate is higher than 50% without the defense system in place (doesnt mean hits are fatal, just hits). but you provide ZERO reasoning why the iron dome system is not factored in other than your insistence you dont like how it doesnt make the facts look as bad as you want them to look


Quote:
i gave the example of the lottery ticket as an instance where outcomes are not equal in chance


The probability will be 50%, that is the chance of a win or a loss will be 50%, if you are the only one competing in the draw. However your question has to be rephrased to sound more logical: What is the probablity of my name getting picked, if a million people compete? Since the number of outcomes or people here are more(a million instead of just you), your probablity reduces. HOWEVER ALL probablities ARE indeed equal.Which means that each person competing in the lottery still has an EQUAL chance of winning the lottery.

Therefore if probablity reduces, its only because the outcomes are more. In this case the number of people. But EACH outcome remains EQUALLY likely (probable).

you dont understand, those million people arent counted because the 999 999 people by itself reduce the chance to NEAR ZERO. this is what you sound like to me. irrational.
i never mentioned other people. are you saying you have the chance to pick ~6 numbers out of 50 correct, 50% of the time? its only you and the numbers playing, the example isnt the best though.

a better one would be you scoring a basketball shot from across the court. that demonstrates that not all outcomes are equal in the real world. what is the likelihood that you can? is it 1/2 because you cant understand math or is it closer to 0.01% because i can toss a ball the distance of the court albeit not accurately.


As for the coin example, its not that the coin landing on its edge is not an outcome or a "negligible outcome". There is nothing called a negligible outcome. The number of tries required to make the coin land on its edge, might be such a huge number, the probability will reduce.But the outcome remains the same as much as the head or the tail. The REASON you consider it "negligible" is simply because its PROBABILITY is less, or because you dont consider it in your set of outcomes when you toss a coin to begin with. I hope you understand the difference between outcomes and probability.

You can only comment on the PROBABILITY or in your own words the LIKELIHOOD of an outcome, not on the outcome itself. As far as the outcome of any event goes, its all possible. It is all part of the "set of outcomes". HOWEVER the "tries" or the "sample space" probably has to be SO HIGH, that some of these outcomes dont really matter when it comes to computing probability. And because you reduce your set of outcomes,either because you consider it a corner case, or because you think it isnt scientifically or physically possible for hte coin to land on its edge for instance, the probability of getting a head or a tail while flipping a coin goes upto 50%.

im saying its likelihood is negligible in the grand scheme of things (ill expand on this in my final sentence). you on the other hand, struggle with the concept that the probability of the outcomes are not always equal. its ~50% for a heads or tails. as opposed to 1/3 for a heads just because there are 3 outcomes possible. heads, tails, edge. the edge is excluded because in all coin tosses a fair toss assumes heads or tails at a perfect 50% rate. in reality, heads and tails both come in at ~50% while edge is <0.0001% but not 0.

So it all boils down to this. What is your "Set of outcomes" ? In the case of a coin your set of outcomes that you consider will be {Head,Tail}. In the case of a missile fired from palestine as of today, in reality will be something like - {Missile succeeds, Missile fails, Missile shot down, etc etc}. Even the accuracy of the Israeli air defence will come into play here.

I am asking you to consider the set of outcomes as - {Missile succeeds, Missile fails}. Why am I not taking other outcomes into consideration? Its because the Israli air defence itself, is designed to increase the number of outcomes, and therefore decrease the probability of that one particular outcome - Missile Succeeds. Since I am arguing for Israel, am not gonna take this into consideration because my intention is to make people understand the severity of the issue. Hope you get it now.

got it, i get it now, you are willfully lying and skewing numbers in order to present a fraudulent view. good for you to finally come clean. i hereby award myself the point and assume you concede since you cannot demonstrate that the probability is 50%, rather, the number you want to present as your argument is 50%. got it.

BTw whenever you say "outcomes are not equal" or "outcomes are negligble" or "outcomes are equally likely" all mean PROBABILITY. You simply cannot talk about the outcomes themselves. You can however choose to include or ignore any outcome. But you gotta give a reason for it.

and your reason is baseless, its entire reasoning is that your claim isnt as horrifying as you want it to be. upon me calling you out on it, you admit that you purposely lied about the statistics and probability involved so that your position looks better. good. we cleared that out of the way.

This is why even missiles have something called CEP - Circular error probablity. They give a number that represents the radius of a circle within which the missile is EXPECTED to fall. Of course in the course of the missile flying to its target, it might encounter a 1000mph tornado, and get sucked into a vortex, but such outcomes are not taken into consideration for logical reasons. This is the same reason (not the tornado) why you ignore a coin landing on its edge.

yes, i ignore that tornado business. i accept not all outcomes are equal in likelihood of occurrence, indeed, some likelihoods are so fringe and unlikely they can be considered negligible and discouted.
but your reasoning cannot. P = outcome / possible outcomes.
in this case its heads (1) / (heads;tails;edge (3))
p(heads) = 1/3
p(edge) = 1/3
my reasoning allows for it. p(heads) = p(heads) / p (total outcome)
p(heads) = ~0.5 / 1 = ~0.5 chance
p(edge) = ~0.0001 / 1 = ~0.0001



btw, have fun dealing with the other two major typers there. :D happy typing. oh, and unless you continue to push this point, i will address your points from 3 pages back.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 12:25 pm 
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Quote:
you were saying the likelihood was 50% to hit. i was allowing for a degree of variance to demonstrate what real world results would be. hence the one off mention of SD


I was saying that because am not taking into consideration the Israeli air defence.

Quote:
you cant apply your biases to force facts, to force statistics.


I am not forcing statistics. I am simply ignoring an outcome, that would otherwise normally be considered in calculating probability. For the sake of illustrating the seriousness of an issue that is otherwise ignored. That is indeed valid.

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you dont understand, those million people arent counted because the 999 999 people by itself reduce the chance to NEAR ZERO.


YES. That CHANCE is called probability. However if I ask you, what the probability of you getting your name picked is you would have ot say 1 in a million. 1/1000000. Therefore Probability will be 0.000001. However each of those million people will have the very same probability. The more you reduce the number of people, the better their chances will be.

Quote:
6 numbers out of 50 correct, 50% of the time?


No, if its any random 6 numbers, then the probability will be 6/50. For example if I give you a set of numbers:

{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10} and ask you to find the probability of picking even integers - {2,4,6,8,10}. Then the probability would be 5/10. Now the more you reduce the set of integers in your favor, say {2,4,5}, and then apply the same question, then the probability will be 2/3. This is what am doing. In the case of missiles, the outcomes are many, but am considering only {Hit, Miss}, BECAUSE I am not willing to consider Israeli air defence here. The defence is because of the attack is my argument.

Quote:
a better one would be you scoring a basketball shot from across the court


It will be 1/2 if you ask the question - what will be my chances of scoring a shot? Because your capabilities cant be represented in anyway here. They cant be quantified. So you will have to take it objectively. You can or you cannot.

Quote:
got it, i get it now, you are willfully lying and skewing numbers in order to present a fraudulent view.


I am not willfully lying. I am simply saying that the missile defence that ISrael has put up, is BECAUSE AND ONLY BECAUSE they are being attacked. When I am arguing for Israel, why should I consider this especially when I am trying to illustrate how grave the situation really is? Previously before the Iron dome, the missiles had a better chance. Today they are less. But are we going to hold that AGAINST Israel? You my friend need some perspective.

Quote:
and your reason is baseless, its entire reasoning is that your claim isnt as horrifying as you want it to be. upon me calling you out on it, you admit that you purposely lied about the statistics and probability involved so that your position looks better. good. we cleared that out of the way.


Ive already answered it above. Just because Israel has air defence, doesnt mean the Hamas attack is LESS severe. When pointing out how grave that situation is, people like YOU tend to skew the situation and say - How many of those missiles hit? As if that was the way it used to be HISTORICALLY. As if that is the way it would be even without the air defence. Thats a ridiculous and naive argument that I wont stand for. The DEFENCE itself is because of the ATTACK. The Attack is what matters here.

Quote:
i accept not all outcomes are equal in likelihood of occurrence, indeed, some likelihoods are so fringe and unlikely they can be considered negligible and discouted.


You are making this mistake AGAIN AND AGAIN. The LIKELIHOOD, is the PROBABILITY!! You can reduce the set of outcomes, in order to give yourself a better chance, but you cannot say an outcome is negligible. There is nothing called a negligible outcome. What is negligible is its PROBABILITY. You cannot consider probability of an event happening even before you calculate the probability in the first place. Infact the tornado, on some day might actually be reality, but because it isnt logical it is discounted. Not because it isnt a valid outcome.Not because it actually cant reduce the missiles accuracy.

Quote:
some likelihoods are so fringe and unlikely they can be considered negligible and discouted.
but your reasoning cannot. P = outcome / possible outcomes.
in this case its heads (1) / (heads;tails;edge (3))
p(heads) = 1/3
p(edge) = 1/3
my reasoning allows for it. p(heads) = p(heads) / p (total outcome)
p(heads) = ~0.5 / 1 = ~0.5 chance
p(edge) = ~0.0001 / 1 = ~0.0001


Likelihoods are fringe, yes. The likelihoods are PROBABILITIES. You cannot calculate P(edge) as 0.0001/1. If you consider the edge, then you calculate 1/3. If you dont, then you are IGNORING the edge. Meaning as if the coin doesnt have an edge. So the edge is not taken into consideration at all. Therefore the set of coutcomes reduce from {Head,Tail,Edge} to just {Head,Tail}. If you do take it into consideration, then without considering physics, gravity and all other stuff like that, your probabiliy aka chance aka likelihood will be 1/3 to get a head, tail or an edge.

Quote:
btw, have fun dealing with the other two major typers there. happy typing. oh, and unless you continue to push this point, i will address your points from 3 pages back.


Yeah am getting tired of typing to everyone :? And yes we can continue, I think we have made enough posts regarding probability. Its something irrelevant and we are digressing.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 1:01 pm 
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Quote:
Yeah in this case, the house actually belongs to Israel. This is what you dont understand. The Arabs were the ones to attack FIRST. They ganged up on Israel. So, no I wouldnt share my house, if someone tried to attack me. If you try to shoot me, and I tackle you take your gun from you. Would you be the one to make rules after that? I will tell you what you can or cannot have. Thats the way the world works.

you can ask anyone and they'll tell you that the arabs weren't the first ones to start it. Read through history, and you'll understand. ;)
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but how did they know the timing, and why did it JUST trigger a diplomatic row between egypt and israel?

by this i meant the exact time during the day when the militant attacks were carried out. :roll:

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When militants attack, you dont think - Eh lets let them go, the other guy will kill them. No. You pursue them and you make sure they are dead. -yes, you do.But you first ask the permission of the other country whether if you could do this on THEIR soil, or leave it to them....cont.blwYour posts reek of naivety and silliness, coupled with strong anti-Israel sentiments either accumulated through stupid left wing media, or you may be a muslim that just hates Israel. Not sure which.

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I am from India. Pakistan harbors lots of terrorists. Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are the worlds top exporters of terror. I just WISH India could get into Pakistan just like Israel did in Gaza and dismantle all the terror groups. Alas its not possible, cuz that would be WW3. Pakistan is not Gaza. Indians even called for a strategic strike on Pakistan after the November 2008 terror attacks. But we HAD to show restraint. Thankfully in the middle east Israel is in control. When a country harbors terrorists, you show them no mercy. Cuz the terrorists wont.

Hold on. Did you read and understand what i meant?
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then how should the countries fighting larger terrorists groups stationed in their neighbouring countries behave?

what i meant here is ALLIED neighbouring countries. India and pakistan is something else-both of you guys are enemies. THAT IS NOT WHAT I MEANT. I was talking about ISRAEL landing their forces and carrying out raids on foreign soil and assets. Israel, without egypts permission , sends their soldiers into egyptian soil (while eqypt and israel are under a peace pact), and this results in the killing of egyptian soldiers as well. If Israel were that smart, they would've pulled back knowing they'll get the blame at the end. Yet, they continued - why? because THEY CHASE death, not the arabs. The other scenario, where israel unleashes havoc onto turkish vessels (flotilla raid) IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS , despite TURKEY being their best ally - and now thanks to ISRAEL , turkey is on the verge of waging war with israel.
Now, i'll show you how ISRAEL is supposed to behave - for example. Houthi rebels taking refuge in the northern mountainous regions of yemen infiltrated into saudi arabia and attacked the border guards. In turn, the saudis set up camp on the border (still on saudi lands) there and brought their army there. The militants ran back into yemen. Did saudi just step into yemen and go shoot them down?. Answer = NO !. Despite yemen being their good allies, they asked permission from the yemeni government and only when the yemeni government gave a 'go' signal did tthe saudis step into yemen and carry out their operations. Another scenario - Turkey and the kurdistan rebels.. after all what the kurd rebels did, did turkey land their forces into iraq and unleash havoc? - yes , they did shoot down rebels in iraq and continue to do this - BUT, they first asked permission from the iraqi government. And this is the right way to behave. Pakistan and India is a different case - they were enemies and are enemies.... this wasn't the case with turkey and egypt - they were allies of israel and now enemies because of israel.

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Everyone wants to end Israel. Its inevitable

yes, inevitable - israel can blame themselves now. and wow, the world is sure crazy to go and pick on israel out of all the other countries?. :roll:
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Israel is not being hypocritical. They are forced to act in this way. Of course the Arabs hate each other. You must be a sunni muslim. Just because one has one set of beliefs dont mean they have to persecute the other. For example, Saudi is against Iran. Because one is SUnni, the other is Shia. And both Iran and Saudi dont like Israel LOL. The Arabs need to get their *CENSORED* together and decide who they wanna support or be against. On the one hand they bend over to western powers, and on the other, they hate on Israel, which itself is an ally to the US. Laughable. And ofc they hate Indians. Pakistan has stronger ties to the middle east and just because India holds a political meeting doesnt mean anything. Its trade and commerce thats that. Pakistan, is against India so as muslims, they will be against India. And they are. Though they remain silent, that doesnt mean anything. If there is a choice they would choose Pakistan over India. Thats all that matters to me. And most of the terrorists from the middle east, DO work against India.


first of all, me being a sunni muslim or me being a roman catholic is non of your concern. This is a DEBATE! and im posting my views/opinion related to the topic.
this is
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For example, Saudi is against Iran. Because one is SUnni, the other is Shia. And both Iran and Saudi dont like Israel LOL. The Arabs need to get their *CENSORED* together and decide who they wanna support or be against. On the one hand they bend over to western powers, and on the other, they hate on Israel, which itself is an ally to the US. Laughable. And ofc they hate Indians.

just plain funny :lol: .so what if its like that^?can't they choose which country can be their ally and which country their enemy? So you're trying to say that just cuz israel is an ally of U.S , U.S become hostile to arabia? . lol . - ur way of taking things portray the real you - pakistan is ur enemy, and just cuz they are allies of the arabs, the arabs become enemies for you for no reason.. lmao :D . As an independent country that is fully recognized around the world, every country has their right to chose which country is their ally and which is hostile. Just cuz some country is an ally of your enemy, that doesnt make that country an enemy. so pls explain and justify what you are really trying to say here and then go ahead calling me stupid ;)
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Pakistan, is against India so as muslims, they will be against India. And they are.

really? you being an indian should know how muslims behave with the hindus. I might be wrong, but as far as i know and from what i've heard from my indian friends and from visiting india, every muslim in india has atleast one hindu as his good friend. what's the bet?

and last:
u say -
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Your posts reek of naivety and silliness
.
oh PLS - Im not perfect... and so are you!!!.. but since u made that statement, i have rights to make my version too ;) .. ..well, being about 11 years younger to you , i perhaps-just perhaps could be naive. But im proud of myself debating SOLO with a person 11 yrs older to me :D.... Nevertheless, its kinda sad :( to think of the fact that im debating with a person who showed up 11 years before me and - one who still FAILS to fathom what i mean, the situation and the plight of millions and one who is just another typical RUTHLESS MEGALOMANIAC out of the 1000s out there already eating up this earth and well, one, if given leadership of country, will lead his own men down the drain...... just another qaddafi, another bush,another assad ...pffftttt... *sigh*.. and after all this, you call me naive?- well, i maybe naive, but for a 19 year old i sure understand stuff so much more than a 30 year old :| and atleast i have a heart(u being 30, dont have a heart :shock: ) and can understand the plight of the people out there,unlike you. ... ... well, now don't blame me for deviating from the topic..i didn't want to make comments like this^ since i don't like it and its a debate, but u really pushed me to it by calling me naive and silly - not aware that you yourself have poor abilities of understanding..so lesson is - DON'T UNDERESTIMATE anyone.. you bring the most learned and richest person to compete with the poorest ,dimwitted illiterate... you'll see that the dimwitted illiterate knows something that the rich educated one doesn't (and you had to learn this from someone younger?)...oh and make sure you dont bring your kids up like you ;) lol...jk(dont take this point serious :D )...... and i'd like to get more people on this topic and see how it goes...cuz...its really really boring to see just the two of us fighting debating over this..... end of story :lol:

now getting back to topic....PALESTINE DESERVES THAT PIECE OF LAND !!!

Have a nice day

cheers ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 8:51 am 
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mfreak wrote:
Quote:
you cant apply your biases to force facts, to force statistics.


I am not forcing statistics. I am simply ignoring an outcome, that would otherwise normally be considered in calculating probability. For the sake of illustrating the seriousness of an issue that is otherwise ignored. That is indeed valid.

How is ignoring a real world and an outcome that occurs the vast majority of the time as not forcing statistics?

its like saying most people die from slipping in the shower because car accidents, disease, drugs, etc are not counted because you want to highlight how dangerous showers are. short and simple? you are forcing statistics as you lacked an argument here. showers are dangerous, we could save many people each year if we install slip proof rubber mats. this is a serious issue and it must be reported that it is the leading killer, that when you shower you have a 1/2 chance of dying because i am mfreak and dont understand math.


Quote:
you dont understand, those million people arent counted because the 999 999 people by itself reduce the chance to NEAR ZERO.


YES. That CHANCE is called probability. However if I ask you, what the probability of you getting your name picked is you would have ot say 1 in a million. 1/1000000. Therefore Probability will be 0.000001. However each of those million people will have the very same probability. The more you reduce the number of people, the better their chances will be.

its actually 1/1 because the possibility of the other 999 999 names were omitted just because. because just because.

Quote:
6 numbers out of 50 correct, 50% of the time?


No, if its any random 6 numbers, then the probability will be 6/50. For example if I give you a set of numbers:

{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10} and ask you to find the probability of picking even integers - {2,4,6,8,10}. Then the probability would be 5/10. Now the more you reduce the set of integers in your favor, say {2,4,5}, and then apply the same question, then the probability will be 2/3. This is what am doing. In the case of missiles, the outcomes are many, but am considering only {Hit, Miss}, BECAUSE I am not willing to consider Israeli air defence here. The defence is because of the attack is my argument.

ignore the lottery example, it isnt a good one. also its actually 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48... x 1/44. if it was 6/50 i would buy all the tickets in the world for infinite moneys.

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a better one would be you scoring a basketball shot from across the court


It will be 1/2 if you ask the question - what will be my chances of scoring a shot? Because your capabilities cant be represented in anyway here. They cant be quantified. So you will have to take it objectively. You can or you cannot.

actually, my capabilities can be represented if its data were similiar to the rocket attacks wherein i could shoot repeatedly and from those results infer a rough probability of getting a shot in (based on % of shots getting in). i can and i cannot, but the likelihood is heavily skewed to me not getting a shot in from across court. that is the actual probability. to guess and assume all outcome likelihoods are equal is just as bad as assuming i have a 1/1 chance of getting it in and a 0/1 chance of missing.

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got it, i get it now, you are willfully lying and skewing numbers in order to present a fraudulent view.


I am not willfully lying. I am simply saying that the missile defence that ISrael has put up, is BECAUSE AND ONLY BECAUSE they are being attacked. When I am arguing for Israel, why should I consider this especially when I am trying to illustrate how grave the situation really is? Previously before the Iron dome, the missiles had a better chance. Today they are less. But are we going to hold that AGAINST Israel? You my friend need some perspective.

it doesnt matter who you are arguing for, you are still wilfully lying if you lie to prove a point. if you misrepresent to get the scary data you want (see vaccines + autism). if you ignore valid outcomes based on preconceived notions of unfairness (zero jews were killed in the holocaust because i am an anti semite and wish to ignore all jews killed in the holocaust to prove my point (if i offend anyone, im sorry, im not saying no jews were killed, im making the point that data cannot be ignored because it isnt to your favour without lying or misrepresenting it)). if you want more extreme examples of why you cant just ignore data based on opinion then ask again. or alternatively, concede the point. of course before the iron dome system the missiles had a better chance, but...
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Its statistics itself that puts the probability at 50%. When a missile is fired, it has a 50% probability of hitting its intended target, and in this case civilians.

not only can you not comprehend that not all outcomes have the same likelihood, you also cant comprehend that outcomes cant be rejected, even if said outcome is the result of 85% of outcomes (iron dome blocks 85-90% of missiles fired). can i, as arguing for the palestinian side, say that no rockets hit because that would be supportive of my argument?

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and your reason is baseless, its entire reasoning is that your claim isnt as horrifying as you want it to be. upon me calling you out on it, you admit that you purposely lied about the statistics and probability involved so that your position looks better. good. we cleared that out of the way.


Ive already answered it above. Just because Israel has air defence, doesnt mean the Hamas attack is LESS severe. When pointing out how grave that situation is, people like YOU tend to skew the situation and say - How many of those missiles hit? As if that was the way it used to be HISTORICALLY. As if that is the way it would be even without the air defence. Thats a ridiculous and naive argument that I wont stand for. The DEFENCE itself is because of the ATTACK. The Attack is what matters here.

AND YET IT IS. LESS PEOPLE ARE DYING BECAUSE THESE MISSILES/ROCKETS ARE GETTING INTERCEPTED. this is the real world. im not saying the rockets are harmless, but im definitely not lying to you and telling you that they are because that would support my position. I have to ask you again, what year do you think this is? 1992 or 2012? hamas havent used their charter politically for ages, they never used it in the election. do you think that in 2012 israel has no iron dome defense? that hamas and israel are EXACTLY the same as 20 years ago? no. times are a changing and you have to factor in change. if you want to not progress and accept new information, feel free to stay still and stagnate for a couple decades longer. ill enjoy the 21st century with other people. hey, did you know USA just invaded iraq, G. W. Bush senior gave the go ahead.

defense is factored into the attack and attack is factored into defense, you cant just ignore defense and say israel is completely useless and just absorbing 1/2 rockets into their major population centres with the other half missing or disappearing to neptune or something. that is lying. there is no way around this that makes you look better. you admitted to purposely ignoring events because you wanted to lie and make things look worse. these are terrorist attacks on civilian population centres, you dont need to lie to make hamas look bad. but by lying, you discredit your position. you make yourself look bad.


Quote:
i accept not all outcomes are equal in likelihood of occurrence, indeed, some likelihoods are so fringe and unlikely they can be considered negligible and discouted.


You are making this mistake AGAIN AND AGAIN. The LIKELIHOOD, is the PROBABILITY!! You can reduce the set of outcomes, in order to give yourself a better chance, but you cannot say an outcome is negligible. There is nothing called a negligible outcome. What is negligible is its PROBABILITY. You cannot consider probability of an event happening even before you calculate the probability in the first place. Infact the tornado, on some day might actually be reality, but because it isnt logical it is discounted. Not because it isnt a valid outcome.Not because it actually cant reduce the missiles accuracy.

the outcome's probability is negligible, it is therefore ignored when factored into real world equations aka. negligible outcome. outliers are ignored you know. they skew results. the tornado is possible, but it is ignored because its likelihood is negligible. how is it not logical? major dust storms occur all the time and a dust devil can damage a rocket and fling it in a different direction with the power of the rest of the storm. it is a possibility, however minute. but people dont factor it into the equation simply because its likelihood makes it negligible. the outcome is valid, but discounted due to its significance being too low. i can calculate the probability of the tornado thing occuring right now. <0.001% for rocket outcomes. that is, less than 1/100 000 rocket outcomes result in this outcome, such an outcome is so low, it is considered negligible.

Quote:
some likelihoods are so fringe and unlikely they can be considered negligible and discouted.
but your reasoning cannot. P = outcome / possible outcomes.
in this case its heads (1) / (heads;tails;edge (3))
p(heads) = 1/3
p(edge) = 1/3
my reasoning allows for it. p(heads) = p(heads) / p (total outcome)
p(heads) = ~0.5 / 1 = ~0.5 chance
p(edge) = ~0.0001 / 1 = ~0.0001


Likelihoods are fringe, yes. The likelihoods are PROBABILITIES. You cannot calculate P(edge) as 0.0001/1. If you consider the edge, then you calculate 1/3. If you dont, then you are IGNORING the edge. Meaning as if the coin doesnt have an edge. So the edge is not taken into consideration at all. Therefore the set of coutcomes reduce from {Head,Tail,Edge} to just {Head,Tail}. If you do take it into consideration, then without considering physics, gravity and all other stuff like that, your probabiliy aka chance aka likelihood will be 1/3 to get a head, tail or an edge.

no, again, you fail to understand that not all outcomes have equal outcome probabilities. also its ~0.0001 which means approx 0.0001. proper notation would put it as <0.0001.
i dont see how you can just ignore physics, gravity. etc. even if you do ignore those two, the coin inherently displays more face and more tails then edge. if you want the 3 to be equal, it wont even be a coin toss anymore. you still need to accept that probability isnt as simple as p = outcome / total number of outcomes. that is for 8 year olds. you can get a grasp of the real values by p = number of outcomes / number of total outcomes. this would display a real probability for coin toss which doesnt have the probability of heads, tails and edge at 1/3.
please, is it that hard to accept that in probability, not all outcomes have equal likelihood of occurance?


Quote:
btw, have fun dealing with the other two major typers there. happy typing. oh, and unless you continue to push this point, i will address your points from 3 pages back.


Yeah am getting tired of typing to everyone :? And yes we can continue, I think we have made enough posts regarding probability. Its something irrelevant and we are digressing.

cant continue until you finally understand basic probability. how can i live knowing a 30 year old person can get outsmarted by a 10 year old? no, i cant allow it. i must educate you and explain, asif you have learning difficulties, why and how you are wrong until you finally get it.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 9:11 am 
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Quote:
you can ask anyone and they'll tell you that the arabs weren't the first ones to start it. Read through history, and you'll understand.


I know everything there is to know about the Israel Palestine issue. I myself was a Palestine supporter at first. What Israel practices in Gaza is brutality. Yes. But sometimes it is necessary. The present conflict is not with just Palestine. It is with the Arab world in general. If you read back through history, you will find that Israel is actually politically correct. Even Chomsky and Finklestein two of the most outspoken critics of Israel accept that Israel is a legitimate state. So no, it was Israel that started anything. When they declared Israel in 1948, it was the Arabs - Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Syria etc, that attacked. Before that there were numerous conflicts, where Arabs and Jews both fought each other using militant groups like the Haganah and the more extreme Irgun - although many Jews disapproved of the Irgun. The main reason for this formation, was because of the reluctance and the inefficiency of the British government to control Arab groups attacking Jews.

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by this i meant the exact time during the day when the militant attacks were carried out.


This is not that difficult. If you have intel, its not surprising. Added to that, I did give you a couple of examples. The Israelis are masters at paying very careful attention to detail. They have demonstrated that capability time and again.

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yes, you do.But you first ask the permission of the other country whether if you could do this on THEIR soil, or leave it to them....cont.blw


No you dont. Are you nuts? Egypt might have signed a peace pact, but when missiles are being launched from their land, when militants attack from their land, dont expect Israel to show restraint. If you dont want Israel to enter, Egypt shouldnt harbor such terrorists. They have their own way of replying to ISrael. Denials. Rockets didnt come from Sinai, they came from Tel Aviv LOL.

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I was talking about ISRAEL landing their forces and carrying out raids on foreign soil and assets. Israel, without egypts permission , sends their soldiers into egyptian soil (while eqypt and israel are under a peace pact), and this results in the killing of egyptian soldiers as well


Egypt agreed to peace, not because they were friendly, but because they lost multiple wars against Israel. They also lost Sinai. In return for peace they got back Sinai. However if terrorist attacks are being conducted, its inevitable that Israel will pursue them, be it beyond the border or not. You cant use borders to safely harbor terrorists.

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THEY CHASE death, not the arabs


Yeah right, the Arabs are very peaceful people. Somehow, having annihilation of Jews and Israel as their sole agenda is peaceful in your eyes. Somehow, sponsoring and exporting terror is peaceful in your eyes.

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The other scenario, where israel unleashes havoc onto turkish vessels (flotilla raid) IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS , despite TURKEY being their best ally - and now thanks to ISRAEL , turkey is on the verge of waging war with israel.


Turkey being a NATO country wont go to war with the NATO leads closest ally in the middle east. Secondly, turkish or not, international waters or not, Israel has to do everything it can do, to protect its nation. Like I said, when push comes to shove, it doesnt matter who dies or who lives as long as you end up alive. That is the case of Israel in the middle east.

BTW you cant possibly expect Arab nations that hate Israel to give permission to Israel. Going by yoru argument, what is Egypt says NO. Then what?So Israel must let go off the terrorists? No. What a country should do, is pursue them and kill em. The country harboring terrorists need to be taught a lesson, that if you threaten our sovereignity, you will lose yours. Thats the way the world works today. In Pakistan's case, India has been a wuss. We should have done this long time back. We shouldnt have given back the 2000 sqkm of land we took from Pakistan in 1971. Alas, the Indian govt lacks the cojones.

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yes, inevitable - israel can blame themselves now. and wow, the world is sure crazy to go and pick on israel out of all the other countries?.


They are used to it. It dont matter to them lol.

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ust plain funny .so what if its like that^?can't they choose which country can be their ally and which country their enemy? So you're trying to say that just cuz israel is an ally of U.S , U.S become hostile to arabia? . lol . - ur way of taking things portray the real you - pakistan is ur enemy, and just cuz they are allies of the arabs, the arabs become enemies for you for no reason.. lmao . As an independent country that is fully recognized around the world, every country has their right to chose which country is their ally and which is hostile. Just cuz some country is an ally of your enemy, that doesnt make that country an enemy. so pls explain and justify what you are really trying to say here and then go ahead calling me stupid


Sure, but the Arabs dont understand the saying that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Iran opposes Israel. Saudi Arabia and all middle eastern nations hate Israel. Yet Saudi goes against Iran. Though IRan is not an Arab state, STILL. The problem is Israel has clear cut policies, and they stand to gain from any Arab nation falling. The Arabs if they ever wanna make progress have to unite. They dont do that. They go by religion. Hence why they are closer to Pakistan than to India. With India they only have trade ties, but with Pakistan there are religious and idealogical ties which are far more important to them. For all the BS they talk, why havent they helped the Palestinians in any way? Israel has half of one percent of the total land area there. No natural resources, nothing. YET their people, including Israeli Arabs live well. But look at the Palestinians. Why dont Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt help those people? After all Jordan was occupying West bank before 1967 and Egypt was occupying Gaza. Now they dont wanna have to do anything with the Palestinians. The lack of unity, a proper foreign policy is laughable really. Its not a conscious well thought out decision, when they go against each other.

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really? you being an indian should know how muslims behave with the hindus. I might be wrong, but as far as i know and from what i've heard from my indian friends and from visiting india, every muslim in india has atleast one hindu as his good friend. what's the bet?


Indian muslims are different from Arabs. Indian muslims are more nationalistic, have always lived with the Hindus. Thouhgh there still is some friction, violence, extremism etc every now and then, for the most part, they are integrated. Arabs even if you put them in Europe and give them citizenship, they will hate the country they live in. Thats how it is in EU. The main reason for Anti-Islamic views in EU is just that.

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oh PLS - Im not perfect... and so are you!!!.. but since u made that statement, i have rights to make my version too .. ..well, being about 11 years younger to you , i perhaps-just perhaps could be naive. But im proud of myself debating SOLO with a person 11 yrs older to me ....


Age doesnt matter. I wasnt picking on Age, but your understanding of the issue.

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and after all this, you call me naive?- well, i maybe naive, but for a 19 year old i sure understand stuff so much more than a 30 year old and atleast i have a heart(u being 30, dont have a heart


LOL you got all worked up over a comment. Of course I have a heart. I dont like what ISraeli soldiers do to everyday palestinians. But fact remains that they attack ISrael too. For example, a couple of Israeli officers, unarmed accidentally strolled into West bank. What happened next? They were captured, tied up, tortured, eyes gouged out, stabbed multiple times, mutilated and finally killed. Somehow when the Palestinians do something barbaric or attack Israel, its only retaliation, and if Israel conducts an airstrike in response its mass murder. The hypocrisy is sickening. You have to look at the issue in its entirety. You are simply commenting on the humanitarian crisis in that region. But the humanitarian crisis ITSELF was brought on by the Palestinians themselves. It wasnt Israel that did it. So now the issue has complicated so much over the years, the war has raged on for 60 odd years, and Israel has political as well as the military advantage, you cant expect Israel to budge.

Quote:
now getting back to topic....PALESTINE DESERVES THAT PIECE OF LAND !!!


Not even Israel is saying Palestinians dont deserve that piece of land. Netanyahu for the most part supports a two state solution. But remember, after all that has happened, it has to be on Israels terms. You cant have a 60 yr war and then total sovereignity the next day. ISrael NEEDS to remain in control. That is how the world works, and that is the practical solution.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 3:25 am 
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Quote:
How is ignoring a real world and an outcome that occurs the vast majority of the time as not forcing statistics?


You HAVE to ignore the real world outcomes, in THIS CASE because I am trying to highlight the gravity of the situation. You on the other hand are downplaying it. You are saying the missiles have very low probability to hit Israel. Yes. But that is because of Israeli air defence. Air defence put up BECAUSE the missiles at first had very high probability. But that doesnt excuse the rocket attacks.

Quote:
its like saying most people die from slipping in the shower because car accidents, disease, drugs, etc are not counted because you want to highlight how dangerous showers are. short and simple? you are forcing statistics as you lacked an argument here. showers are dangerous, we could save many people each year if we install slip proof rubber mats. this is a serious issue and it must be reported that it is the leading killer, that when you shower you have a 1/2 chance of dying because i am mfreak and dont understand math.


Irrelevant. Slipping in the showers and missiles are two different things. Slipping in the showers is not as important, or grave, as rocket attacks which have political implications.

Quote:
its actually 1/1 because the possibility of the other 999 999 names were omitted just because. because just because.


What? The more you reduce the numbers, the more probability a person has to win the lottery. Its a fact.

Quote:
also its actually 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48... x 1/44. if it was 6/50 i would buy all the tickets in the world for infinite moneys.


What tickets? I thought you were talking about picking 6 numbers from 50. You multiply probabilities only when they are conditional in nature. If you are talking picking random numbers where probability of choosing one number does not affect the probability of another, then it would be 1/50 for the first one, 1/49 for the second one, if you pick without replacement. If however I give you a specific set of numbers {1,2,3,4,5,6}, then it would be 6/50.

Quote:
actually, my capabilities can be represented if its data were similiar to the rocket attacks wherein i could shoot repeatedly and from those results infer a rough probability of getting a shot in (based on % of shots getting in). i can and i cannot, but the likelihood is heavily skewed to me not getting a shot in from across court. that is the actual probability. to guess and assume all outcome likelihoods are equal is just as bad as assuming i have a 1/1 chance of getting it in and a 0/1 chance of missing.


This will happen when you gather actual data, fine the average and the Standard deviation, and then plot a normal distribution. Otherwise, if it is a exclusive event, ie, the first time you attempt it, your probability will still be 1/2.

Quote:
t doesnt matter who you are arguing for, you are still wilfully lying if you lie to prove a point. if you misrepresent to get the scary data you want (see vaccines + autism). if you ignore valid outcomes based on preconceived notions of unfairness (zero jews were killed in the holocaust because i am an anti semite and wish to ignore all jews killed in the holocaust to prove my point (if i offend anyone, im sorry, im not saying no jews were killed, im making the point that data cannot be ignored because it isnt to your favour without lying or misrepresenting it)). if you want more extreme examples of why you cant just ignore data based on opinion then ask again. or alternatively, concede the point. of course before the iron dome system the missiles had a better chance, but...


I have said this many times. The REASON I wont consider actual data, by which I mean, the ACTUAL PROBABILITIES of missiles hitting Israel, is BECAUSE Israel has air defence. That very air defence is because the missiles had a very high probability of hitting ISrael, they did hit Israel, many people died. The situation is the same today, except, Israel has employed Iron dome and other systems, which reduce that probability to near zero. However you cannot argue, that the missiles still arent deadly. Hence why I will ignore Israels air defence. To me that doesnt matter. The situation over there is grave, because the Hamas launches rockets. Hence the 50% probability. Israel reducing that probability through air defence has no bearing on my argument. My intention is to point out the severity of the attacks. So no, you are saying that its alright if the Hamas launches rockets, its no big deal cuz the real world data suggests that the probabilities are very less. No. I neither will concede the point nor will stand for that argument.

Quote:
AND YET IT IS. LESS PEOPLE ARE DYING BECAUSE THESE MISSILES/ROCKETS ARE GETTING INTERCEPTED. this is the real world. im not saying the rockets are harmless, but im definitely not lying to you and telling you that they are because that would support my position. I have to ask you again, what year do you think this is? 1992 or 2012? hamas havent used their charter politically for ages, they never used it in the election. do you think that in 2012 israel has no iron dome defense? that hamas and israel are EXACTLY the same as 20 years ago? no. times are a changing and you have to factor in change. if you want to not progress and accept new information, feel free to stay still and stagnate for a couple decades longer. ill enjoy the 21st century with other people. hey, did you know USA just invaded iraq, G. W. Bush senior gave the go ahead.


Yeah less people are dying. But that doesnt take away teh severity of the attacks. This is what am trying to tell you by telling you the probability is 50%. Cuz am ignoring the Israeli air defence. Ive said this before in the previous para. The Hamas might not have "used" its charter, or "used" in their elections, but I consider them totally illegitimate. They may have changed, not because they have changed their ideology, but because they have got their asses whooped. So as long as they stay hostile to ISrael, and trust me, if they can they will even nuke ISrael. Even today. So, no unless they actually change their position politically and through their actions, I wont take that as a valid argument. I still consider them the same terrorist group that they were earlier. Heck today the only difference is they have more powerful weapons.

Quote:
defense is factored into the attack and attack is factored into defense, you cant just ignore defense and say israel is completely useless and just absorbing 1/2 rockets into their major population centres with the other half missing or disappearing to neptune or something. that is lying. there is no way around this that makes you look better. you admitted to purposely ignoring events because you wanted to lie and make things look worse. these are terrorist attacks on civilian population centres, you dont need to lie to make hamas look bad. but by lying, you discredit your position. you make yourself look bad.


Where have I said this? It is you that is lying. I have said repeatedly, that YES, the probability in the real world that a missile actually hits Israel, is very less. Near zero. But I have also explained why I consider the probability to be 50%. The defence is factored into the attack and the attack is factored into the defence, yes. But the defence here DOES NOT MATTER. The defence itself was FORCED on Israel, because of hostile actions from across the border. These hostile actions IS the real issue. Hence when you talk about how severe the situation is, you would have to ignore useless facts like Israeli air defence, and talk about the rocket attacks which are THE MAJOR CAUSE for concern in that region.

Quote:
the outcome's probability is negligible, it is therefore ignored when factored into real world equations aka. negligible outcome.


Yeah the outcomes probability is negligible. But the outcome itself is not irrelevant. The outcome is there, but you ignore it. Cuz you wanna calculate an ideal CEP, factoring in just the relevant challenges the missile might face. Like friction for example.

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no, again, you fail to understand that not all outcomes have equal outcome probabilities.


Dont change what you said. You said outcomes are not equal. You mixed up outcome probabilities with the outcomes themselves.

Quote:
coin toss anymore. you still need to accept that probability isnt as simple as p = outcome / total number of outcomes


The probability is always that. But its the number of outcomes that matters. If you take it at the most basic level, then the probability will be 1/2, for a head or a tail. If you wanna add more outcomes to it, then you would have to go into detail and then calculate probability. However, it is the DENOMINATOR that will change, not the numerator. In that calculation of yours. 0.0001/1 doesnt make sense for a coin flip. The number in the numerator represents an OUTCOME. An occurence. It has to be always a whole number. Its the probability that is always a fraction less than 1.

Quote:
cant continue until you finally understand basic probability. how can i live knowing a 30 year old person can get outsmarted by a 10 year old? no, i cant allow it. i must educate you and explain, asif you have learning difficulties, why and how you are wrong until you finally get it.


Dont go around saying that, cuz your understanding of probability sucks. You mix up outcomes, their probabilities and then you even go on to denote 0.0001 as an outcome for a coin flip!! Laughable. And you call yourself as "outsmarting" a 30 yr old? What you did was outstupid me. Unless you stop displaying signs of dyslexia, and concede your point, you are right, the debate cant continue. But I will never concede the point. So we can keep going back and forth.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 10:18 am 
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mfreak wrote:
Quote:
How is ignoring a real world and an outcome that occurs the vast majority of the time as not forcing statistics?


You HAVE to ignore the real world outcomes, in THIS CASE because I am trying to highlight the gravity of the situation. You on the other hand are downplaying it. You are saying the missiles have very low probability to hit Israel. Yes. But that is because of Israeli air defence. Air defence put up BECAUSE the missiles at first had very high probability. But that doesnt excuse the rocket attacks.

well if you are going to openly lie about reality, you should have gone with 150% of rockets fired hit israeli populations. that would demonstrate how grave and horrible things are. why stop at 50%? why not go to 100%. if you are lying and just making sh*t up as you go along, you might as well give up all sense of decency and ignore reality completely.

"did you know 98% of palestinians are child molesting, sub human, serial killer hitlers? i am not lying, im just highlighting how grave the issue between palestine and israel is. you are trying to downplay it by saying palestinian people are humans. thats nonsense"

i am not downplaying the situation, im stating it as it is. you are sounding more and more crazy, almost as crazy as some conservatives that remain adamant that reality has a liberal bias which is just... too stupid to insult. the reality, the actuality, the bottom line, the truth is that <5% of rockets fired hit israeli population centres. you, yourself has admitted to this, you yourself has admitted to using a scarier baseless statistic to simply win a single point out of many arguments on an online forum, when called out, rather than accepting it was wrong, you remain adamant that it was okay to lie. because reality isnt as bad as you want it to be.


Quote:
its like saying most people die from slipping in the shower because car accidents, disease, drugs, etc are not counted because you want to highlight how dangerous showers are. short and simple? you are forcing statistics as you lacked an argument here. showers are dangerous, we could save many people each year if we install slip proof rubber mats. this is a serious issue and it must be reported that it is the leading killer, that when you shower you have a 1/2 chance of dying because i am mfreak and dont understand math.


Irrelevant. Slipping in the showers and missiles are two different things. Slipping in the showers is not as important, or grave, as rocket attacks which have political implications.

not irrelevant. its lying to foster a sense of fear for no reason. what if all the shower mats were made in canada and it was all an evil canadian conspiracy to increase the number of shower mats purchased? then its political. and its a conspiracy so of course mainstream media wont report on this. and how is dying suddenly not important? how is preventing preventable deaths not important? you cant lie to further your own goals, it makes you are tool.

Quote:
its actually 1/1 because the possibility of the other 999 999 names were omitted just because. because just because.


What? The more you reduce the numbers, the more probability a person has to win the lottery. Its a fact.

but you cant just reduce the numbers because you want to make the probability to equal 1 when in actuality, the probability is not even close. because you just want to win the lottery make it more likely you will. just because you want the rocket attacks to be more successful doesnt make them more successful.

Quote:
also its actually 1/50 x 1/49 x 1/48... x 1/44. if it was 6/50 i would buy all the tickets in the world for infinite moneys.


What tickets? I thought you were talking about picking 6 numbers from 50. You multiply probabilities only when they are conditional in nature. If you are talking picking random numbers where probability of choosing one number does not affect the probability of another, then it would be 1/50 for the first one, 1/49 for the second one, if you pick without replacement. If however I give you a specific set of numbers {1,2,3,4,5,6}, then it would be 6/50.

please, drop the lottery point, also if you understand how a lottery works, the numbers are conditional and must each line up with the number drawn. its actually 6/50 x 5/49 x 4/48 .... x 1/44 i made a mistake. when you pick the first lottery number, you have a 6/50 chance to get it correct. 2nd ball, you have a 5/49. either way, i am willing to completely drop this irrelevant example as it doesnt contribute to the fact you dont understand that not all outcomes are equal in life.

Quote:
actually, my capabilities can be represented if its data were similiar to the rocket attacks wherein i could shoot repeatedly and from those results infer a rough probability of getting a shot in (based on % of shots getting in). i can and i cannot, but the likelihood is heavily skewed to me not getting a shot in from across court. that is the actual probability. to guess and assume all outcome likelihoods are equal is just as bad as assuming i have a 1/1 chance of getting it in and a 0/1 chance of missing.


This will happen when you gather actual data, fine the average and the Standard deviation, and then plot a normal distribution. Otherwise, if it is a exclusive event, ie, the first time you attempt it, your probability will still be 1/2.

now what happens if we have data on rocket attacks? surely you cant still claim it is 1/2 when the attacks clearly do not represent this likelihood of success?

Quote:
t doesnt matter who you are arguing for, you are still wilfully lying if you lie to prove a point. if you misrepresent to get the scary data you want (see vaccines + autism). if you ignore valid outcomes based on preconceived notions of unfairness (zero jews were killed in the holocaust because i am an anti semite and wish to ignore all jews killed in the holocaust to prove my point (if i offend anyone, im sorry, im not saying no jews were killed, im making the point that data cannot be ignored because it isnt to your favour without lying or misrepresenting it)). if you want more extreme examples of why you cant just ignore data based on opinion then ask again. or alternatively, concede the point. of course before the iron dome system the missiles had a better chance, but...


I have said this many times. The REASON I wont consider actual data, by which I mean, the ACTUAL PROBABILITIES of missiles hitting Israel, is BECAUSE Israel has air defence. That very air defence is because the missiles had a very high probability of hitting ISrael, they did hit Israel, many people died. The situation is the same today, except, Israel has employed Iron dome and other systems, which reduce that probability to near zero. However you cannot argue, that the missiles still arent deadly. Hence why I will ignore Israels air defence. To me that doesnt matter. The situation over there is grave, because the Hamas launches rockets. Hence the 50% probability. Israel reducing that probability through air defence has no bearing on my argument. My intention is to point out the severity of the attacks. So no, you are saying that its alright if the Hamas launches rockets, its no big deal cuz the real world data suggests that the probabilities are very less. No. I neither will concede the point nor will stand for that argument.

i dont say the missiles arent deadly, the iron dome defense is not 100% perfect. im just saying that you are lying if you exclude this factor that occurs ~85% of the time in attacks. this a a major result and to ignore based on the fact you want to make it look worse by excluding defense from offense isnt laughable, its stupid. its grave because hamas launches rockets, it is not 50% hit rate though because you want it to be. doesnt matter what side you argue it from, you cant disclude data which makes up 85% of results because you dont like it. that isnt being crazy, that is being stupid.

Quote:
AND YET IT IS. LESS PEOPLE ARE DYING BECAUSE THESE MISSILES/ROCKETS ARE GETTING INTERCEPTED. this is the real world. im not saying the rockets are harmless, but im definitely not lying to you and telling you that they are because that would support my position. I have to ask you again, what year do you think this is? 1992 or 2012? hamas havent used their charter politically for ages, they never used it in the election. do you think that in 2012 israel has no iron dome defense? that hamas and israel are EXACTLY the same as 20 years ago? no. times are a changing and you have to factor in change. if you want to not progress and accept new information, feel free to stay still and stagnate for a couple decades longer. ill enjoy the 21st century with other people. hey, did you know USA just invaded iraq, G. W. Bush senior gave the go ahead.


Yeah less people are dying. But that doesnt take away teh severity of the attacks. This is what am trying to tell you by telling you the probability is 50%. Cuz am ignoring the Israeli air defence. Ive said this before in the previous para. The Hamas might not have "used" its charter, or "used" in their elections, but I consider them totally illegitimate. They may have changed, not because they have changed their ideology, but because they have got their asses whooped. So as long as they stay hostile to ISrael, and trust me, if they can they will even nuke ISrael. Even today. So, no unless they actually change their position politically and through their actions, I wont take that as a valid argument. I still consider them the same terrorist group that they were earlier. Heck today the only difference is they have more powerful weapons.

less people are dying, that doesnt take away the severity of the attacks. lying that more people are dying through falsified data, that doesnt increase the severity of the attacks, it makes your position more dishonest since you must lie to acheive your means. accept it and concede. walk away a man and not a child who is too stubborn to accept they have lost a round. when you do, i am ready to proceed with the discussion. 30 years old? more like 13.

Quote:
defense is factored into the attack and attack is factored into defense, you cant just ignore defense and say israel is completely useless and just absorbing 1/2 rockets into their major population centres with the other half missing or disappearing to neptune or something. that is lying. there is no way around this that makes you look better. you admitted to purposely ignoring events because you wanted to lie and make things look worse. these are terrorist attacks on civilian population centres, you dont need to lie to make hamas look bad. but by lying, you discredit your position. you make yourself look bad.


Where have I said this? It is you that is lying. I have said repeatedly, that YES, the probability in the real world that a missile actually hits Israel, is very less. Near zero. But I have also explained why I consider the probability to be 50%. The defence is factored into the attack and the attack is factored into the defence, yes. But the defence here DOES NOT MATTER. The defence itself was FORCED on Israel, because of hostile actions from across the border.

are not all defences "forced"? this makes you sound ridiculously out of touch with reality.

These hostile actions IS the real issue. Hence when you talk about how severe the situation is, you would have to ignore useless facts like Israeli air defence, and talk about the rocket attacks which are THE MAJOR CAUSE for concern in that region.

even if they are forced, it does factor into the equation, you cant negate the existence of something because it is used defensively. its like saying that in the gaza offensive, you negate the existence of palestinian militants because they are defending against an israeli incursion. it makes no sense. your position, your argument, everything about it. it doesnt matter if the defence is forced or not, it exists, it has a real life effect, it gets counted. not some 50% you pulled from where the sun doesnt shine. tell me, what does that 50% mean in the real world? does it mean roughly 50% of rockets fired will hit israel? or does it mean nothing since it has no basis on reality?

the defense does matter, excluding it is to ignore at least 85% of outcomes. which can only present a skewed result. ignoring the data is opinion. accepting the existence of reality is factual. yes, the hostile action is the real issue, it exists, it happens, you discredit yourself by blowing it out of proportion.

9/10 palestinians eat jewish babies kidnapped across the border. im not lying, im not wrong, im only trying to highlight the plight of the israelis, only trying to demonstrate the severity of it all.


Quote:
the outcome's probability is negligible, it is therefore ignored when factored into real world equations aka. negligible outcome.


Yeah the outcomes probability is negligible. But the outcome itself is not irrelevant. The outcome is there, but you ignore it. Cuz you wanna calculate an ideal CEP, factoring in just the relevant challenges the missile might face. Like friction for example.

what is CEP? im talking about probability, i dont even know what CEP is let alone be trying to calculate it, let alone forcing an "ideal CEP". the outcome is there, but i ignore it based on its extreme unlikelihood. same reason i dont take an umbrella out on a clear sunny day and all weather forecasts predicting no rain. the probability of rain is negligible, i discount it and dont think twice on it. fringe results, outliers, etc. these are ignored not because you want to ignore them, but because they are fringe results, outliers, etc. they skew results when they do happen due to their extreme low likelihood. they are considered negligible. and the best example would be a coin toss resulting in edge.

Quote:
no, again, you fail to understand that not all outcomes have equal outcome probabilities.


Dont change what you said. You said outcomes are not equal. You mixed up outcome probabilities with the outcomes themselves.

do quote me, you should know by now my recurring message is that not all outcomes are equal in likelihood, that in the real world, there is no perfect 50/50 or 25/25/25/25, there is only probability and its inferences. and by mixing what up? my message remains the same, not all outcomes have equal likelihoods. in this instance, the chance for the missile to get blocked by iron dome ~0.85. the chance of complete miss ~0.1. The chance of a hit <0.05. in no way is the probability 0.5 for hit. 0.5 for miss. this only occurs if you suffer from trisomy 21.

Quote:
coin toss anymore. you still need to accept that probability isnt as simple as p = outcome / total number of outcomes


The probability is always that. But its the number of outcomes that matters. If you take it at the most basic level, then the probability will be 1/2, for a head or a tail. If you wanna add more outcomes to it, then you would have to go into detail and then calculate probability. However, it is the DENOMINATOR that will change, not the numerator. In that calculation of yours. 0.0001/1 doesnt make sense for a coin flip. The number in the numerator represents an OUTCOME. An occurence. It has to be always a whole number. Its the probability that is always a fraction less than 1.

its been simplified, like i said, in my very first post, the total possible flips would come up as head or tails 99.999% of the time. think of a spinner board with 4 red, 4 blue and 1 green. except in this instance, both red and blue are in the thousands whereas green remains at 1. ive simplified the denominator because i know you will struggle if the number go higher than 3 digits. btw, 0.0001 / 1 = 0.0001 probability. thats why i left the one there, its simple, its easy to understand, and easy to move it straight to percentage. also its interchangeable with the more formalized values where 1 = happens all the time and 0 = happens never and all the numbers inbetween are probabilities and likelihoods. also havent you ever worked with fractions which are not whole integers? aka. 4/3 pi r ^3 for a sphere volume = (4 x pi x r^3)/ 3. fractions do not require whole integers. your baseless maths still has edge rate of 1/3 whereas mine actually makes sense.

Quote:
cant continue until you finally understand basic probability. how can i live knowing a 30 year old person can get outsmarted by a 10 year old? no, i cant allow it. i must educate you and explain, asif you have learning difficulties, why and how you are wrong until you finally get it.


Dont go around saying that, cuz your understanding of probability sucks. You mix up outcomes, their probabilities and then you even go on to denote 0.0001 as an outcome for a coin flip!! Laughable. And you call yourself as "outsmarting" a 30 yr old? What you did was outstupid me. Unless you stop displaying signs of dyslexia, and concede your point, you are right, the debate cant continue. But I will never concede the point. So we can keep going back and forth.

because you are stubborn. its ~0.0001% which is representative for the edge. i know you understand this. i know you accept that the possibility of edge occuring exists. aka. it isnt impossible. and i know that you cannot formulate this into your math without simply ignoring reality, ignoring the edge possibility exists and ignoring the facts presented. and thusly, i continue, continue teaching the unteachable, teaching the man child, teaching the person with learning difficulties or just stubborness and wilful ignorance.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 12:21 pm 
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Quote:
i am not downplaying the situation, im stating it as it is. you are sounding more and more crazy, almost as crazy as some conservatives that remain adamant that reality has a liberal bias which is just... too stupid to insult. the reality, the actuality, the bottom line, the truth is that <5% of rockets fired hit israeli population centres. you, yourself has admitted to this, you yourself has admitted to using a scarier baseless statistic to simply win a single point out of many arguments on an online forum, when called out, rather than accepting it was wrong, you remain adamant that it was okay to lie. because reality isnt as bad as you want it to be.

i dont say the missiles arent deadly, the iron dome defense is not 100% perfect. im just saying that you are lying if you exclude this factor that occurs ~85% of the time in attacks. this a a major result and to ignore based on the fact you want to make it look worse by excluding defense from offense isnt laughable, its stupid. its grave because hamas launches rockets, it is not 50% hit rate though because you want it to be. doesnt matter what side you argue it from, you cant disclude data which makes up 85% of results because you dont like it. that isnt being crazy, that is being stupid.


You are downplaying the seriousness of the situation. What you fail to accept is that launching rockets is a very very dangerous thing to do. I am not crazy, but I am practical. I am practical because I know first hand what cross border terrorism is. When in India, a safe country normally, a bomb explodes 500m away from my office, killing 1 person, and even though it killed just 1 person out of a city of 10 million people, I know how serious it can be, even when only less than 5 percent of the missiles hit Israel. The question is not about how many missiles hit Israel, or how less their probability is. The argument is about the gravity of the situation. No one can deny that. It is for this reason, that I will not take into account Israeli air defence. That is not lying, that is showing an understanding of how serious the situation really is. I have purposefully ignored the Israeli air defence, in order to point out to you the gravity of the situation, when you choose to downplay the situation telling me how rare the missiles hits really are.

Quote:
its lying to foster a sense of fear for no reason. what if all the shower mats were made in canada and it was all an evil canadian conspiracy to increase the number of shower mats purchased? then its political. and its a conspiracy so of course mainstream media wont report on this. and how is dying suddenly not important? how is preventing preventable deaths not important? you cant lie to further your own goals, it makes you are tool.


A moron with half a brain will understand how childish your arguments are. I am talking about missiles hitting Israel, and you talking about *CENSORED* shower mats. Are you gonna be that bone headed to tell me, that the situation in Israel, namely cross border terrorism, is as simple as showers killing people? Stop being an idiot and get real FFS.

Quote:
but you cant just reduce the numbers because you want to make the probability to equal 1 when in actuality, the probability is not even close. because you just want to win the lottery make it more likely you will. just because you want the rocket attacks to be more successful doesnt make them more successful.


Yeah you cant reduce numbers randomly. But you can certainly reduce the number of outcomes when you wanna point out the seriousness of a situation. Especially when confronted with a person that fails to see the gravity of the situation, and takes it for granted that Israelis are "safe". Even if the air defence systems are 100% efficient, everytime a rocket is launched it IS a threat to life. This is the point I am trying to drive home. So it doesnt matter how many Israelis die, it doesnt matter how many missiles actually succeed in penetrating the air defence systems. The mere fact that missiles are being launched is what matters. This is why I have purposefully ignored Air defence measures employed by Israel.

Quote:
you dont understand that not all outcomes are equal in life.


It is the probabilities of those outcomes that are not equal. The outcomes themselves are very much possible. There is nothing like a negligible outcome.

Quote:
now what happens if we have data on rocket attacks? surely you cant still claim it is 1/2 when the attacks clearly do not represent this likelihood of success?


We have gone through this again and again. If you have data on rocket attacks, then plot a normal distribution and then go ahead to find the probability. It will be less than 1/2. Again, this isnt in question here. What is in discussion here is the SERIOUSNESS of a rocket attack. Hence why I am not interested in "real world" data. Cuz by pointing out real world data, you are underestimating, downplaying and arguing that those missiles are not that deadly. Thats ridiculous.

Quote:
lying that more people are dying through falsified data, that doesnt increase the severity of the attacks, it makes your position more dishonest


Where have I ever said more people die? Again, dont start skewing facts, misinterpreting my arguments and lie yourself. I have said it very clearly, that the missiles have very low probability to hit ISrael in reality. I have also gone on to explain the misunderstanding in one of my previous posts. I have also clearly stated, why I refuse to consider Israeli air defence in this argument.

Quote:
are not all defences "forced"? this makes you sound ridiculously out of touch with reality.


Sounds like you are the one that is out of touch with reality. Every country has defence at its borders. Even Eu nations whose borders are open. Who are friendly with each other for example. It is only Israel that needs special systems for special purposes of defence. This is why am ignoring those defence systems, that specifically target incoming missiles, like the Iron dome.

Quote:
even if they are forced, it does factor into the equation, you cant negate the existence of something because it is used defensively. its like saying that in the gaza offensive, you negate the existence of palestinian militants because they are defending against an israeli incursion. it makes no sense. your position, your argument, everything about it. it doesnt matter if the defence is forced or not, it exists, it has a real life effect, it gets counted. not some 50% you pulled from where the sun doesnt shine. tell me, what does that 50% mean in the real world? does it mean roughly 50% of rockets fired will hit israel? or does it mean nothing since it has no basis on reality?


You cannot simply count the defence and say everything is hunky dory. Sorry. The missile attacks are severe and they have a high probability to hit Israel (50%) if those defences are not there. The fact that they are there, does not reduce its severity. That is the point I wanna drive home.

Quote:
what is CEP? im talking about probability, i dont even know what CEP is let alone be trying to calculate it, let alone forcing an "ideal CEP". the outcome is there, but i ignore it based on its extreme unlikelihood.


Its not because of the low probability. It is because it is irrelevant to calculating CEP. CEP is circular error probability. The radius within which a missile or a projectile will hit.

Quote:
do quote me, you should know by now my recurring message is that not all outcomes are equal in likelihood


Please read up in this very message. You have said not all outcomes are equal. Outcomes are different from probability of those outcomes occurring. That is what am trying to say. Its the probabilities that are low, not the outcomes themselves.

Quote:
your baseless maths still has edge rate of 1/3 whereas mine actually makes sense.

because you are stubborn. its ~0.0001% which is representative for the edge. i know you understand this. i know you accept that the possibility of edge occuring exists. aka. it isnt impossible. and i know that you cannot formulate this into your math without simply ignoring reality, ignoring the edge possibility exists and ignoring the facts presented. and thusly, i continue, continue teaching the unteachable, teaching the man child, teaching the person with learning difficulties or just stubborness and wilful ignorance.


Your arugment makes zero sense. It is a question whether or not you consider the edge. If you consider the edge its 1/3, if you dont its 1/2. Thats how it works. Saying 0.0001 for the edge, is the stupidest math Ive heard. Can you tell me based on what you got 0.0001 as the probability of getting an edge? When you consider only 2 total outcomes, it means you are totally disregarding the edge NOT because it wont happen, but because you consider it irrelevant. Its as if the outcome didnt exist.If you choose to consider it, then there are 3 outcomes - tail, edge, head. Then the probability is 1/3. This is how it works.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2012 8:32 am 
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mfreak wrote:
Quote:
i am not downplaying the situation, im stating it as it is. you are sounding more and more crazy, almost as crazy as some conservatives that remain adamant that reality has a liberal bias which is just... too stupid to insult. the reality, the actuality, the bottom line, the truth is that <5% of rockets fired hit israeli population centres. you, yourself has admitted to this, you yourself has admitted to using a scarier baseless statistic to simply win a single point out of many arguments on an online forum, when called out, rather than accepting it was wrong, you remain adamant that it was okay to lie. because reality isnt as bad as you want it to be.

i dont say the missiles arent deadly, the iron dome defense is not 100% perfect. im just saying that you are lying if you exclude this factor that occurs ~85% of the time in attacks. this a a major result and to ignore based on the fact you want to make it look worse by excluding defense from offense isnt laughable, its stupid. its grave because hamas launches rockets, it is not 50% hit rate though because you want it to be. doesnt matter what side you argue it from, you cant disclude data which makes up 85% of results because you dont like it. that isnt being crazy, that is being stupid.


You are downplaying the seriousness of the situation. What you fail to accept is that launching rockets is a very very dangerous thing to do. I am not crazy, but I am practical. I am practical because I know first hand what cross border terrorism is. When in India, a safe country normally, a bomb explodes 500m away from my office, killing 1 person, and even though it killed just 1 person out of a city of 10 million people, I know how serious it can be, even when only less than 5 percent of the missiles hit Israel. The question is not about how many missiles hit Israel, or how less their probability is. The argument is about the gravity of the situation. No one can deny that. It is for this reason, that I will not take into account Israeli air defence. That is not lying, that is showing an understanding of how serious the situation really is. I have purposefully ignored the Israeli air defence, in order to point out to you the gravity of the situation, when you choose to downplay the situation telling me how rare the missiles hits really are.

you arent being practical, you are being disingenuous. you are purposely ignoring real world data in order to perpetuate a state of mind you have that palestine have to be monsters. im not downplaying it, im accepting its serious business but at the same time, i am stating the actuality of it all. the fact that <5% of rockets hit israeli population centres. if this is downplaying it, if the reality of the situation is downplaying it, then you are crazy. its not practical to lie to yourself and to others just to maintain a constant sense of fear. it is lying, accept how serious the situation is without resorting to slinging bull sh** everywhere to fear monger a point across. you dont see me saying israel is killing 500 palestinians every 1/2 days. if i said that and you disagreed, i would look and sound crazy if i claim you are downplaying the situation.

Quote:
its lying to foster a sense of fear for no reason. what if all the shower mats were made in canada and it was all an evil canadian conspiracy to increase the number of shower mats purchased? then its political. and its a conspiracy so of course mainstream media wont report on this. and how is dying suddenly not important? how is preventing preventable deaths not important? you cant lie to further your own goals, it makes you are tool.


A moron with half a brain will understand how childish your arguments are. I am talking about missiles hitting Israel, and you talking about *CENSORED* shower mats. Are you gonna be that bone headed to tell me, that the situation in Israel, namely cross border terrorism, is as simple as showers killing people? Stop being an idiot and get real FFS.

wrong, i might be talking about shower mats, but the point being made is that lying for a purpose is still lying. misrepresenting numbers to fuel fear is fear mongering. stop taking my examples as literal world events you idiot and get real FFS. would saying showers kill more people than anything else be wrong? yes. cause its effing lying. would not saying showers kill more people than cancer be downplaying it? no. it would be stating reality.

Quote:
but you cant just reduce the numbers because you want to make the probability to equal 1 when in actuality, the probability is not even close. because you just want to win the lottery make it more likely you will. just because you want the rocket attacks to be more successful doesnt make them more successful.


Yeah you cant reduce numbers randomly. But you can certainly reduce the number of outcomes when you wanna point out the seriousness of a situation. Especially when confronted with a person that fails to see the gravity of the situation, and takes it for granted that Israelis are "safe". Even if the air defence systems are 100% efficient, everytime a rocket is launched it IS a threat to life. This is the point I am trying to drive home. So it doesnt matter how many Israelis die, it doesnt matter how many missiles actually succeed in penetrating the air defence systems. The mere fact that missiles are being launched is what matters. This is why I have purposefully ignored Air defence measures employed by Israel.

thats cool, missiles being launched is what matters, but you still ignore reality, you are detached from it, aka. crazy. crazy in your israeli love. you are correct, every time a rocket is launched, it is a threat to life. but not if the air defense systems are 100% efficient, now you are just confused. but they are not 100% efficient, those rockets are real and do damage. what this doesnt mean is you can take it as a license to basically lie to exaggerate and deliberately misrepresent reality to fit the reality of your choosing.

Quote:
you dont understand that not all outcomes are equal in life.


It is the probabilities of those outcomes that are not equal. The outcomes themselves are very much possible. There is nothing like a negligible outcome.

repeat again? you can clearly read what i mean with negligible outcome, its a possible result, but the likelihood is so slim that its discluded/ignored from the overall equation when factoring in outcomes. aka. edge from a coin toss.

Quote:
now what happens if we have data on rocket attacks? surely you cant still claim it is 1/2 when the attacks clearly do not represent this likelihood of success?


We have gone through this again and again. If you have data on rocket attacks, then plot a normal distribution and then go ahead to find the probability. It will be less than 1/2. Again, this isnt in question here. What is in discussion here is the SERIOUSNESS of a rocket attack. Hence why I am not interested in "real world" data. Cuz by pointing out real world data, you are underestimating, downplaying and arguing that those missiles are not that deadly. Thats ridiculous.

or im pointing out reality. and you dont find its horrible enough. THAT, my chum, is ridiculous. how can you not be interested in reality? how can you openly encourage living in a bubble you made yourself for yourself? reality is harsh and grim, distorting it does no one favours. you might as well claim 100% of rockets fired hit.

i accept the rockets are dangerous, even real world data points out israeli deaths. im not downplaying it, im exposing it for what it is, im expressing the truth grounded in reality while you express baseless opinion grounded on nothing. i dont see why you feel obligated to lie and make reality fit your conclusions when your conclusions should fit morality. i am no longer interested in continuing this discussion if everytime i raise a valid point, you ignore it on the basis of "I DONT LIKE IT" and have a little childish tantrum if i try to bring it up.

Quote:
lying that more people are dying through falsified data, that doesnt increase the severity of the attacks, it makes your position more dishonest


Where have I ever said more people die? Again, dont start skewing facts, misinterpreting my arguments and lie yourself. I have said it very clearly, that the missiles have very low probability to hit ISrael in reality. I have also gone on to explain the misunderstanding in one of my previous posts. I have also clearly stated, why I refuse to consider Israeli air defence in this argument.

your refusal to consider israeli air defence and in conjunction, your assertion that 1/2 rockets hit and kill (if you want, i can quote the passage you wrote for the 3rd time), that is when you said more people die. which is a lie. which is an unnecessary lie. the reasons you refuse to consider the iron dome defense is petty at best, *CENSORED* when thoroughly examined.

Quote:
are not all defences "forced"? this makes you sound ridiculously out of touch with reality.


Sounds like you are the one that is out of touch with reality. Every country has defence at its borders. Even Eu nations whose borders are open. Who are friendly with each other for example. It is only Israel that needs special systems for special purposes of defence. This is why am ignoring those defence systems, that specifically target incoming missiles, like the Iron dome.

really? what about US's missile defence systems (nuke shields)? every country has a different defence system its like claiming the north korean army waiting on the edge of the DMZ is a specialized defense because of the unique situation between them and south korea. a country surrounded by water would have a specialized navy whereas a landlocked country would have a specialized army. in conflict, do you have a reason to ignore any of these systems on the basis they are specialized and specifically designed to combat the challenges faced aka. sea invasion vs land invasion. obviously the one surrounded by water wont face a land invasion.

Quote:
even if they are forced, it does factor into the equation, you cant negate the existence of something because it is used defensively. its like saying that in the gaza offensive, you negate the existence of palestinian militants because they are defending against an israeli incursion. it makes no sense. your position, your argument, everything about it. it doesnt matter if the defence is forced or not, it exists, it has a real life effect, it gets counted. not some 50% you pulled from where the sun doesnt shine. tell me, what does that 50% mean in the real world? does it mean roughly 50% of rockets fired will hit israel? or does it mean nothing since it has no basis on reality?


You cannot simply count the defence and say everything is hunky dory. Sorry. The missile attacks are severe and they have a high probability to hit Israel (50%) if those defences are not there. The fact that they are there, does not reduce its severity. That is the point I wanna drive home.

actually it does reduce the severity because 50% is a ridiculously severe hit rate compared to <5%. the reality of the situation and reality itself is the point im trying to drive home. the missiles are still severe, they are still deadly, they just arent magical and obtain a 50% hit rate like you claim they are.

Quote:
what is CEP? im talking about probability, i dont even know what CEP is let alone be trying to calculate it, let alone forcing an "ideal CEP". the outcome is there, but i ignore it based on its extreme unlikelihood.


Its not because of the low probability. It is because it is irrelevant to calculating CEP. CEP is circular error probability. The radius within which a missile or a projectile will hit.

yeah, neither of us ever were trying to calculate CEP which is quite specific and involves actually designating a radius of a specific length around the mean and the 50% hit rate of within that circle. we are talking general probability. and in this instance >85% of missiles are blocked. ~10% miss completely and the rest hit a populated centre. we arent using a particular rocket or a particular point of israel here for calculations.

Quote:
do quote me, you should know by now my recurring message is that not all outcomes are equal in likelihood


Please read up in this very message. You have said not all outcomes are equal. Outcomes are different from probability of those outcomes occurring. That is what am trying to say. Its the probabilities that are low, not the outcomes themselves.

what do you mean when you say low outcomes? because if i were to slip up, i would mean low prob of outcome. does "low outcomes" even make sense? if not, ignore, probably a typo. oh and do quote me, its not hard. it will allow me to ctrl+f and find it with ease.

Quote:
your baseless maths still has edge rate of 1/3 whereas mine actually makes sense.

because you are stubborn. its ~0.0001% which is representative for the edge. i know you understand this. i know you accept that the possibility of edge occuring exists. aka. it isnt impossible. and i know that you cannot formulate this into your math without simply ignoring reality, ignoring the edge possibility exists and ignoring the facts presented. and thusly, i continue, continue teaching the unteachable, teaching the man child, teaching the person with learning difficulties or just stubborness and wilful ignorance.


Your arugment makes zero sense. It is a question whether or not you consider the edge. If you consider the edge its 1/3, if you dont its 1/2. Thats how it works. Saying 0.0001 for the edge, is the stupidest math Ive heard. Can you tell me based on what you got 0.0001 as the probability of getting an edge? When you consider only 2 total outcomes, it means you are totally disregarding the edge NOT because it wont happen, but because you consider it irrelevant. Its as if the outcome didnt exist.If you choose to consider it, then there are 3 outcomes - tail, edge, head. Then the probability is 1/3. This is how it works.

i have never said it was 0.0001 probability, i have always used either the ~ or the < notation to express its approxmiately 0.0001 (~0.0001) (aka. near zero) or less than 0.0001 (<0.0001) (aka. near zero). it was an educated guesstimate with plenty of wiggle room for the rate of an edge occuring, that is, there is either less than or approximately a 1 in 10 000 chance of getting an edge result. i use approximately since i dont see a need to add more zeroes than necessary. either way, the likelihood of an edge occuring is very very very low. which is the point i make. i consider the edge a POSSIBLE outcome. when saying there is a 50/50 chance of a head or tails, thats because when rounded, the likelihood of an edge has no impact on the heads/tails rate when using figures without decimal points. i see you still dont understand that not all outcomes have and equal likelihood of occurance. lets say i coloured a spinner 2/5ths in red and 3/5ths in blue. is it a 50/50 chance of hitting red? note that there isnt actual different outcomes, just area shaded. now imagine that same spinner representing a coin toss, there would be ~50/50 red and blue and a tiny sliver of green representing edge. its there, but the likelihood of its occurrence is extremely low, low to the point that that outcome is considered negligible when asking for the probability of a coin toss (50%). the possibility is there, its just ignored.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sun May 20, 2012 2:22 pm 
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Look I am not gonna read walls of text and spend an hour of my time replying to the same thing over and over again. Its getting redundant. By now I hope you understand that I will NEVER concede this point. That outcomes are always possible and that probabilities of outcomes differ based on what outcomes you consider. So I am not gonna talk about Math, probability, standard deviation, normal distributions, shower mats, lottery tickets, sucker punches, coin tosses, basketball shots, "lying", "bein crazy", fear mongering and all that BS. Point is this:

We started talking about this probability because I said that the Hamas cannot be circumvented in the peace process. My claim was that the Hamas is a dangerous terrorist outfit, and there is no way you can circumvent them and propagandize something without understanding the cultural,historical, religious and political issues at hand. And that the Hamas is threatening life day in and day out, in reply to your attempt at downplaying the situation by pointing out probabilities and putting the onus on Israel. As if it was them that attacked. I wont stand for it. The fault is solely with the Palestinians and the Arabs. This is a fact.

So,

A) I WILL NOT consider Israeli air defence, not to lie, not to fear monger, not to exagerrate BUT to drive home the point that the rocket attacks are deadly. It was because it was deadly and caused widespread loss of life and property, that Israel went for air defence. This is a fact that has been accepted by both of us. It is also a fact that today, very few missiles stand a chance against Israel. HOWEVER, this is STILL an issue and will always be an issue, and will always work against the peace process.

B) There is absolutely no way the peace process can continue unless:

1) The Hamas either lay down their arms, or disband
2) The Hamas transfer power to the PLO.
3) The Hamas recognize Israel as a legitimate state. Its charter still holds that Israel needs to be annihilated. What their leader said, or how they have changed (which is something you dont know, neither do I, so I just go by their actions) does not matter. Infact if they have changed am not really sure why they had to launch missiles a couple weeks back.
4) Accept that the Hamas rockets ARE deadly, EVEN if most of them are shot down. If you want to see how serious the attacks are, just ignore air defence and then imagine the situation. When the probability is 50% you can understand the trauma it causes. Infact it is a fact that thousands in these border towns of Ashkelon, Sederot etc are treated for PTSD, because their daily life is affected. DESPITE the Iron dome systems.
5)It isnt Israels poor humanitarian record that is the source of the conflict, the source of the conflict has historical, religious, political and cultural implications.
6)Israel does not target civilians purposefully and the deaths are because of collateral damage when Israels RETALIATES.

Without understanding these complications there is no way to achieve peace either through propaganda or otherwise.

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