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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 12:18 pm 
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mfreak wrote:
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this is the point im drilling home to you that you have no idea what you are talking about. there are 2 outcomes, rocket hits, rocket misses. rocket hit's probability is 0.05. rocket miss/intercepted probability is 0.95. two outcomes, probability is different. total = 1. if you cannot wrap your head around this, you are a lost cause. lets do this with all factors but simplified.
rocket hit 0.05 rocket intercepted by iron dome 0.85 rocket miss completely and land in unpopulated area 0.10. total = 1. total hit chance 0.05. total miss chance 0.95


I told you once, and I wont say it again after this. If you cant debate, or dont have any answers to the real question, and if you wanna hold on to your stupidity, then get out. I told you already, what Israel does to defend itself DOES NOT FACTOR INTO THE PROBABILITY.Therefore When the Hamas launches a missile it has a 50% hit probability. The reason you CANNOT take Israels actions into consideration is because Israel is the VICTIM here. So your answer simply implies, that just because ISRAEL REDUCES THE PROBABILITY to near ZERO, it is okay to launch 100 missiles since a negligible amount will fall on ISrael and if Israel retaliates there is gonna be a near 100% kill probability. So you are putting the blame on Israel as if they are wrong. No. I wont stand for it.

ARE YOU SURE YOU ARE 30 YEARS OLD? the mental capacity you are demonstrating is not even double digits in terms of representative age. replace rocket attack with probability i will miss from the half way mark in basketball its not 50/50 because my skills dont factor into the equation because my skills are the "victim" (the probability of a hit (score) is still near zero). it doesnt matter. in maths, it doesnt matter who is victim who is aggressor, probability doesnt have a code of ethics, those fractions are not sentient. you have lost the plot and seem to just side track it away from the fact you dont know basic probability or how it works. i scroll down and i see you completely ignore my mentioning of how not all outcomes have an equal chance. you are actually blinded now in your zealotry. a bit hypocritical when you ignore my explanations and examples as to why your view of probability is incorrect and then claim i dont know how to debate.

im telling you now, put all this israel + palestine discussion and drop it. i want to teach you some basic math a 12 year old can understand so we can move on but instead you just launch into tirade after tirade, israel this, victim that. effing stop it.


Quote:
THEN IT ISNT 50% IS IT NOW? ITS NEAR ZERO.


Yes its near Zero. But that doesnt factor in, in the argument. What Israel does to defend itself is no one's business. The fact is that missiles are launched and when they are launched they have a 50% hit probability. I hope you understand my previous post and not go on another pointless rant about what consititutes probability, once again taking ISraels actions into consideration. The argument is about the Hamas launching missiles. Which I consider a threat to life, which it is. What ISrael does to defend itself should not factor in, in the argument. You will finally advocate ISrael to go use the same guns to even the fight.Thats just dumb.

nope, this argument is your claim that 1/2 rockets fired by hamas kill. or even that 1/2 rockets fired by hamas hit. when you yourself claim that its actually near zero rockets hit and kill. go back just two posts and its really quite clear. are you purposely trolling or just being stupid? i literally cannot tell. i have never met a 30 year old who doesnt understand that 1/2 =/= 1/100

no really, you surprise me in your ignorance and your willingness to resort to screaming israel when basic math hurts your brain. i never said the rockets were not a threat to life, i caught you out on a gross exxageration - 1/2 rockets kill. you, moronically, stubbornly, ignorantly, chose to defend this point rather than concede. i asked 5 posts ago for a source for this statistic, you claim you dont need source its just "statistics". i point out why you are wrong and you selectively ignore most of my relevant points, the ones explaining, step by step, why you never passed high school. instead, there is a mockery of debate, a faux news style reply where you side track and distract from the issue at hand. YOU. ARE. WRONG.

you think im painting israel in a negative light? im not the first nor the last to do so, but this rocket thing is completely seperate. how can admitting and critically study the hamas rocket attacks be an attack on israel? its acceptance that hamas is a terrorist organisation, the point is not pro israel nor pro hamas here, its pointing out why YOU ARE WRONG.


Quote:
i refuse to continue until you see the error of your ways, swallow your pride and admit you were an idiot on this point. until then. i will fight stubborn idiocy with stubborn idiocy. and trust me, no one can out stupid me.


Then get out. I wont concede to stupidity when I am right. I agree no one can out stupid you. Unless you wanna answer the real questions.

and i will gladly answer the real questions, the past several pages of back and forth between us demonstrates this, but what nags me is your unwillingness to accept fault, to accept blame, to accept that perhaps, just perhaps, you made an absolutely r3tarded point.


important quotes that you did not address abridged. namely, all of the ones where i explain point by point why you are wrong. just because you ignore them, doesnt mean they disappear.
Quote:
to hold all possible outcomes as equal in possibility is ridiculous. there are 3 outcomes. heads, tails, edge. but the possibility of edge is so small its negligible, not saying that it isnt there. this is math, you cant rule out math because its too specific or too accurate.
heads is 0.4999999999998, tails is 5.000000000001 and edge is 0.000000000001. but no, according to you. P = outcome/possible outcomes.
3 possible out comes. you want heads. its 1/3 chance according to you. for me its a ~1/2 chance (any difference from 1/2 is negligible)

Quote:
rocket hit 0.05 rocket intercepted by iron dome 0.85 rocket miss completely and land in unpopulated area 0.10. total = 1. total hit chance 0.05. total miss chance 0.95
are you going to now tell me that when a rocket is fired it has a 1/3 chance to get hit by the iron dome when in actuality the iron dome blocks ~85% of rockets? or that it has a 1/3 chance of missing everything completely when its actually a 1/10?

Quote:
ONE BASIC OUTCOME = "i dont win the lottery" = 1/2 chance of winning the lottery.


I HEREBY ONCE AGAIN CALL UPON A MEDIATOR, ANY MEDIATOR. you do not need to join in the discussion of israel/palestine, it does not even need to involve israel/palestine at all. just explaining that probability doesnt choose sides, that israel's iron dome is a factor because it directly affects the rate at which missiles hit/kill. that having 10 goalies affects your ability to score a goal in soccer than 0 goalies - 1/2 for shooting a goal with no goalies. 1/2 for shooting a goal with 10 goalies? that makes no sense. outcomes have different probabilities.

that, regardless of israel of hamas or someone or something. 1/2 =/= 1/100 because it doesnt sound as horrifying as you want it to sound.
anyone willing? this is post#3 relating to this point only.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2012 1:41 pm 
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Quote:
ARE YOU SURE YOU ARE 30 YEARS OLD? the mental capacity you are demonstrating is not even double digits in terms of representative age. replace rocket attack with probability i will miss from the half way mark in basketball its not 50/50 because my skills dont factor into the equation because my skills are the "victim" (the probability of a hit (score) is still near zero). it doesnt matter. in maths, it doesnt matter who is victim who is aggressor, probability doesnt have a code of ethics, those fractions are not sentient. you have lost the plot and seem to just side track it away from the fact you dont know basic probability or how it works. i scroll down and i see you completely ignore my mentioning of how not all outcomes have an equal chance. you are actually blinded now in your zealotry. a bit hypocritical when you ignore my explanations and examples as to why your view of probability is incorrect and then claim i dont know how to debate.

im telling you now, put all this israel + palestine discussion and drop it. i want to teach you some basic math a 12 year old can understand so we can move on but instead you just launch into tirade after tirade, israel this, victim that. effing stop it.


Am sure am 30 yrs old. I am also sure you are 2 years old. When one doesnt have the mental capacity to understand what I am talking about, its natural that they question mine, but thats alright. Its nothing unexpected. Like I said before, a missile launched by the Hamas, DOES have a 50% probability. That is the absolute, basic probability. I dont need you to teach me Math or probability, lemme teach you some. IF not, just drop the subject and admit that youve lost it. My probability is right. Like I said I am not gonna take Israel's air defence into consideration. That does not matter. The fact that there is a 50% probability is the reason why Israel employs such air defence, so by saying that the missiles have lesser than 50% probability BECAUSE of Israels air defence, you are missing the point.Unless and until you understand this point, the debate cannot continue.

I also sense a case of evading the real debate, by picking on minor issues that actually arent related. Typical of people that have lost the game.

Quote:
I caught you out on a gross exxageration - 1/2 rockets kill.


No you didnt. What you did was try and misinterpret me, and even after repeated explanations you continue to do so. This clearly shows who is stupid. This is what happens when you cant answer real questions. I said a couple of posts earlier:

Quote:
The missile had a 50% probablity to hit a civilian and kill him.



You said:

Quote:
please do quote the stastics that make you think 1 in 2 rockets fired into israel kills.


I am talking about probability. The probability of a rocket to actually hit a civilian, still stays 50%. You went on to talk about how Israel's air defence reduces that probability and you are saying that 1 in 2 rockets kill. Both are different statements. My statement is the PROBABILITY. You are stating it as a statistic - a fact. That 1 in 2 rockets kill civilians. Unless and until you understand this difference, you can keep posting but I will NEVER concede.Whether there is a moderator or not.

I therefore assumed that there might be a misunderstanding, so I explained:

Quote:
Its statistics itself that puts the probability at 50%. When a missile is fired, it has a 50% probability of hitting its intended target, and in this case civilians. Its like flipping a coin. 50% probability for a head or a tail.


After that you have simply committed yourself to keep stating:

Quote:
im not gonna smash my face into a wall until its bloody until you offer up some source for the 50% kill rate for rockets fired.


If YOU had finished school, then you would know that probability is an estimate. A 50% kill is STATISTIC. A FACT. ONCE AGAIN am saying that a missile fired has a 50% PROBABILITY to hit Israel. But you are misinterpreting it as "5 out of 10 missiles fired ACTUALLY hit Israel" and then you want sources for it!!. I am talking probability, you are talking fact. This is why you are wrong. Unless and until you admit you are wrong, fine, I wont concede or continue.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2012 2:58 am 
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mfreak wrote:
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I also sense a case of evading the real debate, by picking on minor issues that actually arent related. Typical of people that have lost the game.

really? because up until you started insisting that in probability all outcomes are equal, i was responding all all posts in a relatively timely manner when my work schedule would allow for it.

Quote:
I caught you out on a gross exxageration - 1/2 rockets kill.

No you didnt. What you did was try and misinterpret me, and even after repeated explanations you continue to do so. This clearly shows who is stupid. This is what happens when you cant answer real questions. I said a couple of posts earlier:
Quote:
The missile had a 50% probablity to hit a civilian and kill him.

You said:

Quote:
please do quote the stastics that make you think 1 in 2 rockets fired into israel kills.


Quote:
I am talking about probability. The probability of a rocket to actually hit a civilian, still stays 50%. You went on to talk about how Israel's air defence reduces that probability and you are saying that 1 in 2 rockets kill. Both are different statements. My statement is the PROBABILITY. You are stating it as a statistic - a fact. That 1 in 2 rockets kill civilians. Unless and until you understand this difference, you can keep posting but I will NEVER concede.Whether there is a moderator or not.

im not asking a mod to make you concede, im asking for a mod to mediate, in fact, any forum user can help mediate this since im sure even you can agree that the past several posts have been fruitless.
with probability you can always infer it with real world results. factor in a bit of standard deviation and variation and boom, you have a statistical aggregated number that reflects real life examples. im not saying 50% probability = 5/10 rockets hitting. that is the EXPECTED NUMBER to hit based on the probability. in reality, even with a massive SD of 1 for rocket hitting, 99.97% of the time, the rockets hitting will be between 2-8. this is not the case when the real life probability is lower than 1/10 rockets hitting.

probability has real life applications. i am doing a degree in science, i spent a semester doing statistical analysis in science which applies real life examples to the bell curves you see.
this semester im doing psychology RDA, it involves the statistical inference of data. i have to be able to understand and plug in numbers into SPSS program that does the calculations for me. for the exam i have to do statistical calculations by hand with a scientific calc.
for you to say that probability is completely separate from the actuality completely baffles me. the whole use of probability is to make assumptions with clear logical grounds. for example in psychology, for something to be statistically significant, it has to have less than 0.05 P value to account for real world "random". despite all that, i suck at maths, but at the very least, i can run and understand statistical tests which is really all that i need, im not doing physics which requires more complex mathematics. regardless all that, you dont need to take statistics in uni, or even graduate high school, you just need to understand not all outcomes in probability are equal. you just need the most basic of probability principles to be understood here and thats all that i ask of you.


mfreak wrote:
The missile had a 50% probablity to hit a civilian and kill him.

you do know that this suggests that 1/2 times a missile is fired, a civilian will be hit and die? it doesnt mean definitively that 1/2 times it happens, but that it is the expected rate of occurance. again, basic probability.


I therefore assumed that there might be a misunderstanding, so I explained:

Quote:
Its statistics itself that puts the probability at 50%. When a missile is fired, it has a 50% probability of hitting its intended target, and in this case civilians. Its like flipping a coin. 50% probability for a head or a tail.

and i explained that not all outcomes are equal. there is a slim chance that the coin can land on its edge is there not or are you telling me its impossible? that doesnt make the probability 1/3 chance for landing on heads. it means the edge chance is negligible in the grand scheme of probability and in all likelihood the only outcomes to take into consideration are heads and tails. both heads and tails in this instance have a fair chance of landing on either side. ergo they have a 50% chance as opposed to the 33.33% chance that you suggest. i gave the example of the lottery ticket as an instance where outcomes are not equal in chance, just because there are two outcomes at the most basic of levels "win lottery or lost lottery" does not give both outcomes equal likelihood. i hope you dont gamble because you will lose out all the time.

After that you have simply committed yourself to keep stating:

Quote:
im not gonna smash my face into a wall until its bloody until you offer up some source for the 50% kill rate for rockets fired.


If YOU had finished school, then you would know that probability is an estimate. A 50% kill is STATISTIC. A FACT. ONCE AGAIN am saying that a missile fired has a 50% PROBABILITY to hit Israel. But you are misinterpreting it as "5 out of 10 missiles fired ACTUALLY hit Israel" and then you want sources for it!!. I am talking probability, you are talking fact. This is why you are wrong. Unless and until you admit you are wrong, fine, I wont concede or continue.


with 50% as an estimate, its expected that 5/10 rockets will hit. but since it isnt, i highly doubt its a fact.
please refer to my first major slab of green reply to find out why you are wrong. probability has real world applications. actuarial studies graduates use it to determine premiums in insurance which is one massive gambling initiative. ill reiterate but i prefer to respond fully to the first thorough argument:
5/10 is the expected value and the actual value does not represent this. 50% is therefore highly unlikely to be the actual hit probability of rockets fired by hamas.

if you choose to ignore all other factors and simply believe that all outcomes are equal when the opposite is clearly evident then i worry for you, i worry for how you manage to put on pants by yourself in the morning, i worry for your handlers and how they cope with someone so detached from reality.


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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2012 4:31 am 
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Ill reply to this on Saturday. Busy till Friday and cant take time off.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 7:02 am 
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I can tell you one thing for sure..... The jews and Arabs will continue to be hostile to each other until the end of this world.... they were hostile to each other even before 1400 years...they are even now...and they WILL be....

and it has been vivid enough for all these decades that the jews are hypocrites and the ones that are most at fault... sure, the arabs have their fault as well...but everytime the arabs try to sign up a peace treaty...the jews do something nasty and bring up the hatred again.......this is not the first time..not the second..nor the third.. several times.. the jews have broken up the peace treaty and betrayed the arabs...and even after all of this betrayal for 1000s of years .....its just pathetic to see the arabs keep trying to make peace between the two.... histroy proves it.... long long ago...the jews didnt have a land...they lived with the arabs and caused alotta problems secretly.. like how they do nowadays(thanks to the media and improved technology now-we know whats happening) .... when the arabs knew that the jews caused all the problems despite giving them a place to leave...they went up to leader and signed a peace treaty... it was named the 'treaty of hudaibiya' - thats like 1000s of years back... .. the treaty stated that the jews were allowed to live and do what they want-just like the others...they were to be brothers of arabs and that when the city was attacked-both , the arabs and jews will defend together.. the treaty had alotta points like these, including the statement of the jews being expelled if they made problems... ..the jews accepted the treaty .... but the arabs got to know that the jews were hypocrites first during some war.... the arabs were defending the city and the jews were beside them -defending.....but only during like the middle of the war..the arabs were astonished to see the jews fighting against them from inside the city - the jews secretly worked against the arab enemies and they thought they were winning the war..and attacked the arabs.... luckily..the arabs won the war and the jews were surrendered(they hid in their fortresses afraid to fight=cowards)...and eventually...they were expelled from that city...like this.... when the arabs took firm control over their lands - presently saudi arabia...the jews were completely expelled from arabia , to the area they came from- the majority of the jews lived in a piece of land under the persian rule... they formed their own piece of land only after the arabs defeated the Byzantine army(persians)... which is presently israel i believe.... but even then...they didnt have complete control over their lands as the persians later became their enemies and kept destroying their lands when the jews broke their peace pact... .. jews actually formed israel and took complete control of that land long after all this^..... so, what im trying to say here is, Palestine should have a land for them. Israel is just being too greedy and whenever a country is weak - isreal gets into them and kills them all-even if they are allies ... fortunately, Israels surrounding countries at present are either equal or powerful than israel - except for palestine ..palestine has been weak throughout... and isreal keeps weakening them more... History follows ..persians were against jews- now - IRAN against ISRAEL... arabs against jews - whole of middle east hates ISRAEL....and others as well..... :D

jews have been known for their hypocrisy and betrayal throughout...even now...after the UN called off a ceasefire and peace between the two in 2009-when israel went extreme on gaza, isreal still continues to have air raids, bombs gaza mosques,homes , killing the innocent palestine..... Which man kills a small kid of 6 or 7 by just pulling out his gun and shooting at the kid when the kid is running beside him = An israeli soldier.. ..how pathetic... is that a true soldier?.. what can a poor kid of 6 or 7 do?... bomb the whole of israel?... do u see any point in this ruthless act?.. the old, the women , the kids are just pointlessly being shot at... and the world just keeps getting :o and does nothing over this? pathetic.... my whole point here is...to portray the cruelty of the israelis and to show who deserves a land to stay in- an inhumane person who blindly shoots at a kid running by? or a poor person who mourns the death of his whole family-seeing them shot ruthlessly in front of his eyes?... there will be no peace between the two...there cannot be when israel continues to break the peace... when the UN laid the ceasefire in 2009..did u see any hamas soldiers on the street having gun battles with the israeli soldiers? -no ...cuz they honoured it.... but..u sure saw many israeli soldiers shooting at the innocent palestines, molesting the young woman who yet have their lives to be lived, bombing homes and mosques, carrying out air raids..... in a week, i can bet that atleast...ATLEAST, 5 palestine people are killed... thats only the least :lol: .... im not wholly accusing the israelis of everything...i mean...the gazans have their faults as well...but whose fault outweighs?... indeed the israelis.....

so, all i can say is.......FIRST,put urself into the shoes of TWO MEN - one who lives under an airconditioner, seeing his family, having parties and enjoyable moments in his life, not bothering about whats gonna happen the next minute in his life cuz he knows he is safe and loves his life and is sure that he can achieve his dreams with little help....and the other man-who kills an innocent kid running by and laughs at it with his friends..........

and then..SECOND, put urselves into the shoes of a young man and his pathetic plight ,one who mourns for death of his entire family, unaware of what will happen to him during the next minute ,having his heart in his mouth every single day when he wakes up , that whether he will live (even if he lives , his dreams are shattered) ..or die... ,

AND THEN DECIDE WHO DESERVES A LAND TO LIVE( the first scenario, or the second?) :)


PS: by saying all this...i dont mean ALL THE JEWS are hypocrites and nasty people(if i mentioned everyone-im wrong and pardon me ;) )... there are some really nice,kind hearted jewish friends and other people i have met and i was shocked to see how friendly and truthful,trustworthy they could be....... BLAME THE LOVE OF POWER... its due to the MEGALOMANIACS that all this mishmash and violence occurs! and some innocent people sadly follow their power hungry leaders(which leads to wars indeed) not aware of what their leaders do.....however, the wise ones avoid this and know whats right and whats wrong....its not only for israel and the jews...its the same situation in almost EVERY SINGLE country :( ...

''When the power of love, will overcome the love of power; the world will know PEACE.''

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 10:27 am 
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alright, it seems there is someone kind of on my side of the argument, but unfortunately, the user uses many ellipsis.

my goal is just to help mfreak understand that not all outcomes in life are equal. the probability of you having a heart attack tomorrow is not 50% just because the two outcomes are "have heart attack" and "not have heart attack". its just a basic principle of probability, of life even, that a 5 year old can understand.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 11:55 am 
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mrducky wrote:
alright, it seems there is someone kind of on my side of the argument, but unfortunately, the user uses many ellipsis.

my goal is just to help mfreak understand that not all outcomes in life are equal. the probability of you having a heart attack tomorrow is not 50% just because the two outcomes are "have heart attack" and "not have heart attack". its just a basic principle of probability, of life even, that a 5 year old can understand.


well said :D , and about the ellipsis :lol: , sorry about that, im just so used to using it while typing. I use it instead of the comma's lol

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 12:17 pm 
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Okay I took some time off, so I thought Ill reply to this. Am not gonna reply to SoulReaper, Ill have to read it and Ill do it some other time.

Quote:
with probability you can always infer it with real world results. factor in a bit of standard deviation and variation and boom, you have a statistical aggregated number that reflects real life examples. im not saying 50% probability = 5/10 rockets hitting. that is the EXPECTED NUMBER to hit based on the probability. in reality, even with a massive SD of 1 for rocket hitting, 99.97% of the time, the rockets hitting will be between 2-8. this is not the case when the real life probability is lower than 1/10 rockets hitting.


I think there is a misunderstanding, about the way I am thinking and about the way you are thinking. Let me clarify this misunderstanding in this post. And for this post, you HAVE to take the Israel Palestine missile crisis as an essential part of the argument, simply because I am not talking just MATH here, rather a probablity issue that is deeply tied to the issue we are discussing - the missile crisis.

Yes probablity has real world implications. But why are you going after Standard deviation anyway? Standard deviation is based on a set of REAL WORLD ACTUAL results, plotted as a normal distribution and then you go ahead to find how much the data deviates from the average. And then you can even go on to find the probability. Unless you wanna collect 5 year data about missiles fired into Israel, and their success rate and then plot a normal distribution, this is irrelevant. Now I have said in one of my previous posts, and even in subsequent posts that the number of missiles hitting Israel, have a probablity of NEAR zero. This is NOT in question here. Yes, every missile fired has a VERY slim chance of hitting Israel simply because they have many obstacles to cross, which is primarily the Israeli air defence. THEREFORE a missie's probablity to hit Israel is NOT 50% but near zero. This has been repeated tons of times and this is not in debate here.

What is in debate however, is the way you look at things. I am PURPOSEFULLY ignoring Israeli air defence. Think of a hypothetical situation, where there is absolutely NO air defence, and a missile is fired. And you do know that these missiles are fired from a distance of like 5-10 kms, far less than their actual range. Which is pretty close. Now tell me, what the probablity of that missile is to hit Israel? If you remove all obstacles, the probablity is 50%. Because the missile might fail, or succeed. Therefore 50% probablity. Therefore the 2 outcomes ARE indeed equal here.

The reason that I WILL NOT consider the air defence Israel puts up, is simply because the air defence by itself, is to reduce this very basic 50% chance of success to near zero. I hope you understand that.

Quote:
i gave the example of the lottery ticket as an instance where outcomes are not equal in chance


The probability will be 50%, that is the chance of a win or a loss will be 50%, if you are the only one competing in the draw. However your question has to be rephrased to sound more logical: What is the probablity of my name getting picked, if a million people compete? Since the number of outcomes or people here are more(a million instead of just you), your probablity reduces. HOWEVER ALL probablities ARE indeed equal.Which means that each person competing in the lottery still has an EQUAL chance of winning the lottery.

Therefore if probablity reduces, its only because the outcomes are more. In this case the number of people. But EACH outcome remains EQUALLY likely (probable).

As for the coin example, its not that the coin landing on its edge is not an outcome or a "negligible outcome". There is nothing called a negligible outcome. The number of tries required to make the coin land on its edge, might be such a huge number, the probability will reduce.But the outcome remains the same as much as the head or the tail. The REASON you consider it "negligible" is simply because its PROBABILITY is less, or because you dont consider it in your set of outcomes when you toss a coin to begin with. I hope you understand the difference between outcomes and probability.

You can only comment on the PROBABILITY or in your own words the LIKELIHOOD of an outcome, not on the outcome itself. As far as the outcome of any event goes, its all possible. It is all part of the "set of outcomes". HOWEVER the "tries" or the "sample space" probably has to be SO HIGH, that some of these outcomes dont really matter when it comes to computing probability. And because you reduce your set of outcomes,either because you consider it a corner case, or because you think it isnt scientifically or physically possible for hte coin to land on its edge for instance, the probability of getting a head or a tail while flipping a coin goes upto 50%.

So it all boils down to this. What is your "Set of outcomes" ? In the case of a coin your set of outcomes that you consider will be {Head,Tail}. In the case of a missile fired from palestine as of today, in reality will be something like - {Missile succeeds, Missile fails, Missile shot down, etc etc}. Even the accuracy of the Israeli air defence will come into play here.

I am asking you to consider the set of outcomes as - {Missile succeeds, Missile fails}. Why am I not taking other outcomes into consideration? Its because the Israli air defence itself, is designed to increase the number of outcomes, and therefore decrease the probability of that one particular outcome - Missile Succeeds. Since I am arguing for Israel, am not gonna take this into consideration because my intention is to make people understand the severity of the issue. Hope you get it now.

BTw whenever you say "outcomes are not equal" or "outcomes are negligble" or "outcomes are equally likely" all mean PROBABILITY. You simply cannot talk about the outcomes themselves. You can however choose to include or ignore any outcome. But you gotta give a reason for it.

This is why even missiles have something called CEP - Circular error probablity. They give a number that represents the radius of a circle within which the missile is EXPECTED to fall. Of course in the course of the missile flying to its target, it might encounter a 1000mph tornado, and get sucked into a vortex, but such outcomes are not taken into consideration for logical reasons. This is the same reason (not the tornado) why you ignore a coin landing on its edge.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 12:57 pm 
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Sorry to double post, but here. Reply to Soul reaper. Cant do bigger ones am just too lazy. Read up on my earlier posts for more historical info in this same thread.

Quote:
but everytime the arabs try to sign up a peace treaty...the jews do something nasty and bring up the hatred again.


Please explain. what was the peace treaty the ARABS tried to sign with Israel? Was it the Khartoum resolution of 1967 - no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel and destruction of ISrael that you are talking about?

Or is it the 2009 ceasefire, that was rewarded by about what 1000 rockets or something which actually led to the Gaza war? Or is it the blatant attack on the newly formed Israel back in 1948 that you are talking about. By not just 1 country, but by Iraq, Jordan, Leabanon,Syria,Egypt and a few others?

Secondly, the story about 1000s of years ago you said is complete rubbish. Israelis, left Egypt, and came to Israel.King David ruled over Greater Israel, and then the Romans came in and chased the Jews away. This is what happened. Its not that the Jews betrayed anyone.

Also after ALL develpoed nations failed Jews during WW2, and I say this categorically, EVERY European nation, including the United STates was responsible for the holocaust. Jews trying to escape nazi germany into UK, US etc were sent BACK to the Nazis to die in Aushwitz and other places. Therefore remember the saying, what doesnt kill you, only makes you stronger? Thats what has happened to the Jews. So now they have their own state, and they will protect and defend themselves.

Quote:
when the arabs knew that the jews caused all the problems despite giving them a place to leave.


What problems? Are you talking about the historic nazi principle of blame the jew if you have any problem that you are talkin about? This is nothing new. The world is in a financial crisis, then ofc blame the Jew. The Zionists are causing it. etc., Its total BS.

Without going into a long post, cuz am tired to type, Palestine was never a country. The whole of the middle east, except for Saudi, was being ruled by the Ottoman empire. The British and the French then took over, and divided that land into Israel, Jordan etc.,

Quote:
isreal gets into them and kills them all-even if they are allies ... fortunately, Israels surrounding countries at present are either equal or powerful than israel - except for palestine ..palestine has been weak throughout... and isreal keeps weakening them more... History follows ..persians were against jews- now - IRAN against ISRAEL... arabs against jews - whole of middle east hates ISRAEL....and others as well.....


Israel does not go into any country killing them. In 2006, the Hezbollah kidnapped 3 soldiers,and fired like 4000 missiles into Israel. So the war against lebanon. Palestine is not even a country. Allies? What allies? You mean the whole of the middle east that has attacked and lost to Israel?

Quote:
jews have been known for their hypocrisy and betrayal throughout


Explain and justify.

Quote:
.the gazans have their faults as well...but whose fault outweighs?... indeed the israelis.....


Really? You gotta read up on your history. Then we can debate. Simply blaming the ISraelis of being monsters, is ridiculous. The Arabs there have brought this on themselves.

Most of your post is just typical of people listening to left wing media that always put Israel in a bad light. In reality you dont take the cultural, historical, religious and political issues into consideration. Research about the past 100 years of Israels history, who has attacked them, why ISrael is in Gaza and West bank. Also you gotta understand that it is not the Israeli-Palestine conflict, it is the Arab-Israeli conflict.

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 Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 2:42 pm 
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To be honest i havnt read all the posts here im simply writing my opinions down before reading and being influenced and if i feel i am wrong i will edit this post and will add on the fact that i was wrong lol. anyway.....


I am fully on the palestinians side for the simple reason of how they are treated......My homeland has had the exact same treatment and continues to do so in our province of Ulster. The Israelis are planters, they have arrived to palestine which they believe is their cultural homeland from 1000 years ago except theres just one problem, theres someone else already living there aka the palestinians, so what do the israelis do??They do what all good colonialists do, they cleared sections of land bit by bit, built it up and fortified it then slowly expanded driving the locals away, the surrounding nations saw this happening and among other reasons besides the humanitarian issues (I am ignoring religion as imo anyone who focuses on it doesnt get the whole picture at all...) and moved in to stop these invaders and lets face it, after 1000 years they come and force people out of their homes and form their own government, why not amalgamate with the locals??Sure they cant because their 1k/2k/3k/4k years dead profit said no they are bad heathens apperently (religion is a realllllly long game of chinese whispers so nuthing can be taken as "excuse the pun" Gospel truth) so what happens??Oh the so called leaders of the free world (most redundant statement i have ever heard) America comes to the rescue and fights off the bad bad locals (It takes a nation of colonist planters to side with another) so they can finally have an ally in the middle east (guess turkey didnt count at the time lol) supplying weapons to to the zionists and sending good old "military advisers" ya know who they are right??The same ilk as blackwater a bunch of warmongering mercs with their modern name PMC. Together the colonists drive off the bad bad locals at get right back to planting by pushing the palistinians further and further back until we get to today where palestine isnt on a map and the people live in the largest open water prison, what of the colonists you ask??Well they have the best internal security american training can provide and now are infact more secure than america experts say (just going back to the largest open prison, the israelis actually detained irish volunteers and the irish MEP(member of european parliment) for

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