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simmen

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 9:09 am 

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 5:32 am Posts: 16029 Gender: male

Not getting into this. Just want to come with some info I just read. Hamas have made a force of 300 soldiers with authentication to use force against any militant Palestinians trying to fire missiles at Israel. That is all.
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mfreak

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 10:06 am 

Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 am Posts: 2756 Location: Chicago, Illinois Gender: male

So what did they do to the guys that fired 100 missiles into Israel last month? And some into Elat from Sinai?
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simmen

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 10:22 am 

Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 5:32 am Posts: 16029 Gender: male

Article is from today, so not 100% sure how long it have been in place, or if it was put in place today.
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mfreak

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 11:27 am 

Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 am Posts: 2756 Location: Chicago, Illinois Gender: male

Eh Hogwash.
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mrducky

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 1:34 pm 

Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 8:06 pm Posts: 781 Gender: male

mfreak wrote: Quote: how old are you? 11? 12? 13 ?14 cant be more than 14. you dont know how basic probability works. just because there are two options does not make both options equal in probability like a coin. moreover: "It doesnt necessarily mean that half the rockets fired, kill" > this was exactly what you were stating. i didnt ignore your reasoning, i explained carefully as one would explain to a child with learning difficulties how probability works. you will find that entire explanation in the post right before this one. 0.85 blocked = 0.15 possible to hit. I am 30. Much older than you I bet. Basic probablity works the way I said. If you throw a stone at a person, what is the probablity that the stone will hit him? Its 50%. As simple as that. Your calculation that 0.15 possibilty is besides the point. Infact the last time around only 1 out of 100 hit. Thats way below 15%. But that is not the point. The reason only 1 hit is because Israel reduces that 50% hit probablity to near zero through the use of their defence systems. But that doesnt matter. The fact that 100 missiles were fired is what matters, Quote: you said that 1/2 rockets kill. i am still waiting on the source Now dont piss me off. I have told you repeatedly, that the 1/2 was probablity. I didnt say 100 rockets were fired, 50 hit civilians and killed them. Read back my original post where I stated that and unless you are dyslexic you will understand I was talking about PROBABILITY not actual figures. FFS. simmen wrote: Not getting into this. i need your help, can you please explain basic probability to mfreak here? probability is the likelihood of something happening, 1/2 rockets hitting a population centre in israel (50%) would have roughly 50/100 rockets hitting a population centre in israel. if its 1/100 then the probability is 1/100 aka. 1% chance. just because there are two options does not make both options equal in probability. for example, say you are walking down the street and i were to run up from behind and punch you in the back of the head. the probability of me hitting is 97/100. there is the chance i stumble and fall or that you are particularly paranoid and duck based on instinct. just because there are two options 1. hit you in the head 2. not hit you in the head does not mean its 1/2 chance. not everything is equal like a coin flip. in this case, the rocket chance is 1/100 not 1/2. if you want me to quote you so you sound like a tool after telling me to go back and quote you, i will do so. i just hope you havent editted it out in hindsight. simmen please step in here, this is doing my head in, its so frustrating teaching a grown adult how the fundamentals of probability work. resolve this point for us and i will respond to the other points in discussion. if i have to respond to mfreak not passing high school math, i might just face palm myself to death. please mediate and resolve this point for us, i feel we are at an impasse and mfreak is just not understanding. bias from me? definitely, but this is getting tiring. Edit****** oh and i decided to get those quotes out anyways. in case they do magically disappearQuote: The missile had a 50% probablity to hit a civilian and kill him. Quote: Its statistics itself that puts the probability at 50%. When a missile is fired, it has a 50% probability of hitting its intended target, and in this case civilians. Its like flipping a coin. 50% probability for a head or a tail. Quote: I said it already. The 50% kill probability is a reality every time they launch a rocket. If I throw a stone in public, the probablity that it will hit a person is 50%. Its Math FFS. LET THE DENIAL BEGIN.
take: "The 50% kill probability is a reality every time they launch a rocket." and "Its like flipping a coin. 50% probability for a head or a tail." as the key example here why i am about to shoot myself in the foot because the pain of explaining this is unbearable.
i know you want to be impartial and not a part of this, but im sure even you know how probability works. its not witchcraft, its straight forward and this simple concept eludes mfreak completely
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mfreak

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Thu May 10, 2012 2:02 pm 

Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 am Posts: 2756 Location: Chicago, Illinois Gender: male

Quote: i need your help, can you please explain basic probability to mfreak here?
probability is the likelihood of something happening, 1/2 rockets hitting a population centre in israel (50%) would have roughly 50/100 rockets hitting a population centre in israel. if its 1/100 then the probability is 1/100 aka. 1% chance.
just because there are two options does not make both options equal in probability.
for example, say you are walking down the street and i were to run up from behind and punch you in the back of the head. the probability of me hitting is 97/100. there is the chance i stumble and fall or that you are particularly paranoid and duck based on instinct. just because there are two options 1. hit you in the head 2. not hit you in the head does not mean its 1/2 chance. not everything is equal like a coin flip. in this case, the rocket chance is 1/100 not 1/2. if you want me to quote you so you sound like a tool after telling me to go back and quote you, i will do so. i just hope you havent editted it out in hindsight. For FFS keeping up with boneheadedness is what derails a perfectly good discussion. If a rocket is fired, the probablity of it hitting the target is 50%. This is BASIC PROBABILITY. Probability is all about a set of outcomes. If a missile is fired, once again, there are exactly two outcomes: 1. The missile will hit its target. 2. The missile will not hit its target. Those are TWO outcomes. Therefore the probability that it will hit its target is 1/2. The REASON it is 1/100, is because of Israel's air defence coupled with the fact that the missiles are not that advanced. But missile technology or air defence does not increase or decrease absolute probability. When the rockets are launched they have 50% probability. So unless you understand this you can keep on saying how even though there are only 2 outcomes the probablity is lesser. NO. The probability is calculated : P = The outcome/The total number of outcomes. This is how it works!!. Now explain to me how in the WORLD you consider the probability to be lesser. If you are gonna take into consideration Israel's air defence and tell me 15% rockets hit, then that is BECAUSE OF Israels air defence. I told you already. That is NOT to be taken into consideration. It doesnt matter. That doesnt make it okay to throw 100 rockets. It doesnt make it not a dangerous attack. It doesnt mean it is not a threat to life. It doesnt mean people will sleep peacefully if they know rockets are being fired. Get some perspective. You are going about a pointless debate about how BECAUSE Israel has air defence and it blocks most rockets, the probablity is less. NO. The probability is always 50%. Israel reduces that probability by using air defence. You should not take that into consideration. Therefore it IS like flipping a coin. By the very same argument I could say, that when Israel throws a laser guided bomb, people run to take cover. So that makes the probability that the bomb will kill someone less. No. The probability is always 50%, unless and until you come up with more than 2 outcomes. IF you still wanna smash your head, you should. I hope that will get some sense into it
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mrducky

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 10:47 am 

Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 8:06 pm Posts: 781 Gender: male

mfreak wrote: Quote: i need your help, can you please explain basic probability to mfreak here?
probability is the likelihood of something happening, 1/2 rockets hitting a population centre in israel (50%) would have roughly 50/100 rockets hitting a population centre in israel. if its 1/100 then the probability is 1/100 aka. 1% chance.
just because there are two options does not make both options equal in probability.
for example, say you are walking down the street and i were to run up from behind and punch you in the back of the head. the probability of me hitting is 97/100. there is the chance i stumble and fall or that you are particularly paranoid and duck based on instinct. just because there are two options 1. hit you in the head 2. not hit you in the head does not mean its 1/2 chance. not everything is equal like a coin flip. in this case, the rocket chance is 1/100 not 1/2. if you want me to quote you so you sound like a tool after telling me to go back and quote you, i will do so. i just hope you havent editted it out in hindsight. For FFS keeping up with boneheadedness is what derails a perfectly good discussion. If a rocket is fired, the probablity of it hitting the target is 50%. This is BASIC PROBABILITY. Probability is all about a set of outcomes. If a missile is fired, once again, there are exactly two outcomes: 1. The missile will hit its target. 2. The missile will not hit its target. Those are TWO outcomes. Therefore the probability that it will hit its target is 1/2. The REASON it is 1/100, is because of Israel's air defence coupled with the fact that the missiles are not that advanced. But missile technology or air defence does not increase or decrease absolute probability. When the rockets are launched they have 50% probability. So unless you understand this you can keep on saying how even though there are only 2 outcomes the probablity is lesser. NO. The probability is calculated : P = The outcome/The total number of outcomes. This is how it works!!. Now explain to me how in the WORLD you consider the probability to be lesser. If you are gonna take into consideration Israel's air defence and tell me 15% rockets hit, then that is BECAUSE OF Israels air defence. I told you already. That is NOT to be taken into consideration. It doesnt matter. That doesnt make it okay to throw 100 rockets. It doesnt make it not a dangerous attack. It doesnt mean it is not a threat to life. It doesnt mean people will sleep peacefully if they know rockets are being fired. Get some perspective. You are going about a pointless debate about how BECAUSE Israel has air defence and it blocks most rockets, the probablity is less. NO. The probability is always 50%. Israel reduces that probability by using air defence. You should not take that into consideration. Therefore it IS like flipping a coin. By the very same argument I could say, that when Israel throws a laser guided bomb, people run to take cover. So that makes the probability that the bomb will kill someone less. No. The probability is always 50%, unless and until you come up with more than 2 outcomes. IF you still wanna smash your head, you should. I hope that will get some sense into it alright, this is why it isnt 1/2 lets say i am a random hamas militant and i fire one of the basic rockets at an israeli settlement. there are literally trillions of probabilities that spring up the second i fire. i could miss 4km to the north and hit farmland. i could miss 4.01km to the north and hit farmland. the probability of the rocket missing towards the north varies due toe wind, my proficiency with the rocket, in this instance, we are talking about trillions of outcomes / trillions upon trillions more of possible outcomes. if you get right down to the atomic level, there are an infinite number of probabilities that are possible. it could land 0.2 micrometers in one direction or another. P=outcome/possible outcome. what if i were to tell you that in 20 of the possible 24 outcomes, the rocket gets hit by the iron dome defense system? (its scaled down now) if that happens is it 1/2 or 1/6? even if you simplify it further you cant say its a 50/50 chance. thats *CENSORED*. my analogy from before. im running at you behind, i have the element of surprise, in all likelihood im going to hit you in the back of the head. but just because youve simplified it to hit/not hit doesnt make the likelihood 50/50 its like saying i have a 50/50 chance of winning the lotto because the P = outcome (win)/ possible outcome (not win). it is actually causing me pain to write this. i feel nauseous knowing that i have to teach 12 year old math to a 30 year old. again, i call upon simmen to intervene. this is getting sad.
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mfreak

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Fri May 11, 2012 11:51 am 

Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 am Posts: 2756 Location: Chicago, Illinois Gender: male

You dont understand. Drop it. All those "outcomes" qualify as just ONE BASIC outcome = "The missile does not hit its intended target".
That is why the probability at the most basic level is 1/2. I am not concerned with whether the rocket veers of its target, or falls short of its target by 2 meters or .1 millimeter etc., If you are given a problem in a math test  "What is the probability of getting a head on flipping a coin" and if the answer choices are :
a)1/2 b)1/3
you would get it wrong if you choose 1/3, just because there is a probability that the coin CAN possibly land on its edge. You may argue that therefore there are 3 outcomes and not 2. Thats ridiculous. Probability is always calculated with absolutely basic outcomes, without getting into ridiculous specifics. "your element of surprise" if you come behind me to hit me on the head can also be negated saying I have powers to detect incoming sucker punches. That will be one more outcome and your probability will still be lower. Hit or Miss are the two very BASIC outcomes and therefore element of surprise or not the probability is always 50%.
When it comes to missiles, Israel reduces this 50% probability to near zero. But that doesnt negate the severity of the attack.
We through all the discussions have actually digressed. The most basic question:
How will you solve the Israeli conflict taking into consideration the cultural,historical, religious and political issues at hand? still remains.
You still dont have an answer for it. You are simply putting the onus on Israel and advocating humanity when reality shows that it doesnt work.
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mrducky

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 8:34 am 

Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 8:06 pm Posts: 781 Gender: male

mfreak wrote: You dont understand. Drop it. All those "outcomes" qualify as just ONE BASIC outcome = "The missile does not hit its intended target".
ONE BASIC OUTCOME = "i dont win the lottery" = 1/2 chance of winning the lottery.
That is why the probability at the most basic level is 1/2. I am not concerned with whether the rocket veers of its target, or falls short of its target by 2 meters or .1 millimeter etc., If you are given a problem in a math test  "What is the probability of getting a head on flipping a coin" and if the answer choices are :
a)1/2 b)1/3
you would get it wrong if you choose 1/3, just because there is a probability that the coin CAN possibly land on its edge. You may argue that therefore there are 3 outcomes and not 2. Thats ridiculous. Probability is always calculated with absolutely basic outcomes, without getting into ridiculous specifics.
OF COURSE ITS RIDICULOUS. to hold all possible outcomes as equal in possibility is ridiculous. there are 3 outcomes. heads, tails, edge. but the possibility of edge is so small its negligible, not saying that it isnt there. this is math, you cant rule out math because its too specific or too accurate. heads is 0.4999999999998, tails is 5.000000000001 and edge is 0.000000000001. but no, according to you. P = outcome/possible outcomes. (most heads designs in coins have slightly more weight than the tails side, skewing results.)
3 possible out comes. you want heads. its 1/3 chance according to you. for me its a ~1/2 chance
this is the point im drilling home to you that you have no idea what you are talking about. there are 2 outcomes, rocket hits, rocket misses. rocket hit's probability is 0.05. rocket miss/intercepted probability is 0.95. two outcomes, probability is different. total = 1. if you cannot wrap your head around this, you are a lost cause. lets do this with all factors but simplified. rocket hit 0.05 rocket intercepted by iron dome 0.85 rocket miss completely and land in unpopulated area 0.10. total = 1. total hit chance 0.05. total miss chance 0.95
are you going to now tell me that when a rocket is fired it has a 1/3 chance to get hit by the iron dome when in actuality the iron dome blocks ~85% of rockets? or that it has a 1/3 chance of missing everything completely when its actually a 1/10?
"your element of surprise" if you come behind me to hit me on the head can also be negated saying I have powers to detect incoming sucker punches. That will be one more outcome and your probability will still be lower. Hit or Miss are the two very BASIC outcomes and therefore element of surprise or not the probability is always 50%.
now you are just making stuff up. what use does that 50% have if other factors are yet in play?
When it comes to missiles, Israel reduces this 50% probability to near zero. But that doesnt negate the severity of the attack.
THEN IT ISNT 50% IS IT NOW? ITS NEAR ZERO. NEAR. ZERO. HOW CAN YOU BE SO OBTUSE AND STUBBORN. its orwellian. 0.5 = 0.01. 50% = 1%.
We through all the discussions have actually digressed. The most basic question:
i refuse to continue until you see the error of your ways, swallow your pride and admit you were an idiot on this point. until then. i will fight stubborn idiocy with stubborn idiocy. and trust me, no one can out stupid me
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mfreak

Post subject: Re: Israel and Palestine Territory Posted: Sat May 12, 2012 11:04 am 

Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 am Posts: 2756 Location: Chicago, Illinois Gender: male

Quote: this is the point im drilling home to you that you have no idea what you are talking about. there are 2 outcomes, rocket hits, rocket misses. rocket hit's probability is 0.05. rocket miss/intercepted probability is 0.95. two outcomes, probability is different. total = 1. if you cannot wrap your head around this, you are a lost cause. lets do this with all factors but simplified. rocket hit 0.05 rocket intercepted by iron dome 0.85 rocket miss completely and land in unpopulated area 0.10. total = 1. total hit chance 0.05. total miss chance 0.95 I told you once, and I wont say it again after this. If you cant debate, or dont have any answers to the real question, and if you wanna hold on to your stupidity, then get out. I told you already, what Israel does to defend itself DOES NOT FACTOR INTO THE PROBABILITY.Therefore When the Hamas launches a missile it has a 50% hit probability. The reason you CANNOT take Israels actions into consideration is because Israel is the VICTIM here. So your answer simply implies, that just because ISRAEL REDUCES THE PROBABILITY to near ZERO, it is okay to launch 100 missiles since a negligible amount will fall on ISrael and if Israel retaliates there is gonna be a near 100% kill probability. So you are putting the blame on Israel as if they are wrong. No. I wont stand for it. Quote: THEN IT ISNT 50% IS IT NOW? ITS NEAR ZERO. Yes its near Zero. But that doesnt factor in, in the argument. What Israel does to defend itself is no one's business. The fact is that missiles are launched and when they are launched they have a 50% hit probability. I hope you understand my previous post and not go on another pointless rant about what consititutes probability, once again taking ISraels actions into consideration. The argument is about the Hamas launching missiles. Which I consider a threat to life, which it is. What ISrael does to defend itself should not factor in, in the argument. You will finally advocate ISrael to go use the same guns to even the fight.Thats just dumb. Quote: i refuse to continue until you see the error of your ways, swallow your pride and admit you were an idiot on this point. until then. i will fight stubborn idiocy with stubborn idiocy. and trust me, no one can out stupid me. Then get out. I wont concede to stupidity when I am right. I agree no one can out stupid you. Unless you wanna answer the real questions.
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