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 Post subject: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 12:20 pm 
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http://www.collegiatetimes.com/stories/ ... lism/print

very interesting read i found on reddit.

also, i have always prodded discussion and debate/world events with a provocative thread every now and again.

so it seems that the US health system is failing (the proposed fix, 'obamacare' is getting blocked at every turn (USA is the only western nation without universal healthcare))
it seems the US education system is failing, there are plenty of scary statistics like 55% of USAmericans dont know the sun is a star. or alarming statistics regarding those that think evolution is the real deal. in all, i think the US is ranked 38th? globally which is quite sad for a country of US's stature.
of course the economy is tanking.
the two parties do whatever they can to sabotage each other, even at the expense of the country that they are supposed to help run.
rather than come together to work forward, you find people are migrating increasingly towards the fringe rather than the moderate, the compromise zone of politics.
there is widespread public distrust of the government, many think that the government orchestrated 911, faked the moon landings, has aliens in roswell. any other country, they would be considered insane or close enough to insanity. this is in part due to attack shows and conspiracy theories which run rampant. (some of it is self interested, obama has made no sign that he would increase gun restrictions but certain individuals are mouthing off knowing that panicked buying of weaponry will ensue as gun nuts try to collect them all before 'obama takes the guns off them'
many US senators have signed a public vow to NEVER increase taxes. but with tax breaks, this results in certain states to begin cutting into teacher numbers, medicaid, the basics really. people seem to forget that tax breaks are a form of spending. and that tax + spend makes more fiscal sense than spend + spend. so again, due to the politics and the lingering mccarthyism (DEM COMMIEZ ARENT GONNA SOCIALIZE MA MEDICARE! >.>) another hole is being dug with no real solution found (since republicans spend just as much as democrats, recently there was that news of a proposed budget involving increased military spending, increased tax cuts for the rich, cuts on low income services.)
oh and the war that is constantly draining USA as well as the ever increasing debt (which is technically handleable with all things considering)

so. factor in a growing china, a growing india, a growing asia, in general, if the 20th century belonged to USA, will USA even be relevant into the late 21st century?

ducky out.

(all things considered, you cant forget that USA outspends on military everyone else put together)

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 12:44 pm 
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I think yes. Well, not Number 1, cuz we really dont have any ranks here, given that even now there are countries that have a higher standard of living than the United States - New Zealand, Norway to name a few.

But if we are talking politics, military strength etc, even if not number 1, I would say it will be one of the most important.

I dont know where I read this report, Ill try to find it for ya, but by 2100, they predicted - Russia, China, India, United States,Brazil as the biggest and most powerful - not in any particular order, except for Russia (number 1) - reason was its natural resources and man power and low debt.

Though, predicting a 100 years is ridiculous in my opinion :D

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 2:53 am 
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gah, have i lost my touch? i used to be able to bait the entire forum into a discussion frenzy, now i get a single reply D:'

mfreak does raise a valid point, the military spending means that the US will still be #1 in 90 years time.

but then again, 90 years is a long time.

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 6:14 pm 
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Ohhai it's mrducky. This is my second account, Kenny. You can probably guess what USA-loving post I'm about to post.

By the end of the 21st century, uhh, perhaps.. perhaps yes. I think the 21st century is going to be predominately the US century, as we're going out of the child country phase into something more mature.

First of all, about your baiting... I am hungry.

1. Health system is failing? Let's talk about the scary sides of your universal healthcare systems like the fact a lot of people are getting stuck on waiting lists and dying. I think if we actually took a deeper look we could find more people dying in the universal healthcare systems than in America.

2. Awwl, I'll have to concede. Our education system doesn't quite make sense because the federal government keeps getting in the way. I do say that at a state levels, there are some pretty good education systems going on.

3. Economies go up and down bro, there's a rebound already beginning that could be taken advantage of if our president wasn't such a moron. We'll see what happens come election.

4. And you're saying that european/australian politics aren't as bad, if not worse?

5. Baseless statement. "Many" I stopped reading after that.

6. Debt could be solved if our president was willing.

7. China isn't a brutally competitive nation, they're more focused inward than outward.

8. LOLINDIA. Perhaps if their government was run properly and their people weren't still publicly defecating everywhere.

Right. That's out of my system.

First of all, when we're talking about who's going to be awesome by the end of the century, why is it that no one talks about Poland or Japan?

Poland is between two enemies that it dislikes for good reasons, and is becoming a production monster in order to feel safe again.

Japan is creating mechanized workers that can deal with all of their trashy jobs and focusing in hard on their education to produce one hell of a breed of smart engineers.

Both are 2 countries that everyone is sorely underestimating.

Second of all, while America is having issues right now, what guarantees these will be issues forever? I think your liberal mind is making you a bit too narrow MrDucky. Right now America is the boss of the world. Why? We control all the trading routes by sea with our unmatched Navy. We control space by our massive array of satellites and space exploration funding. We control the air by our unmatched Airforce.

Our economy is reeling but we have a capitalist system, so it'll have its ups and downs. For those reasons alone guarantee America's rightful spot for having this entire century to themselves.

China being a competitor? Let's not begin on all the internal issues they have, like a populace that they may not be able to feed correctly, or the growing problem that more and more of their provinces are begging to become more of capitalist societies like Hong Kong. Not to mention all of the leaders have sent their children to America for college and they're now coming back with ideas to change China into something their parents may/may not want.

Chew on that for a bit Mrducky. I'd like you to tell me why you didn't include Poland or Japan :)

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 9:58 pm 
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8. LOLINDIA. Perhaps if their government was run properly and their people weren't still publicly defecating everywhere.


Its true that a lot of people are poor in India, but to say people are publicly defecating everywhere is idiotic.

Show some *CENSORED* respect you moron. There is no reason to talk trash about another country, even if you dont like it, and something that is false. Just because you have seen Slumdog Millionaire does not make you an expert on India.

Lastly, You could debate, and get your point across without disrespecting others.

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:37 pm 
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But just because you pissed me off and dragged me into the debate:

You are wrong about China. China is already influencing Latin America and Africa. They are a manufacturing giant. They are the second largest spenders on military.

India on the other hand is starting to explore Africa. Is increasing its military spending and infrastructure.

It is a fact that both these countries have increasing importance in the world.

Both countries have huge manpower, manufacturing potential, and the middle class of the world is expected to be concentrated in these 2 countries. Infact, the next century will see a shift in wealth from the west to the east. Yes, the west will get progressively more richer and have a better standard of living than the east.

For a country to be "number 1", you need a large land area and therefore less dependence on others for natural resources - hence why poland and Japan wont be the top countries. You need a large manpower for a strong army and a labor force - again something where Japan and poland wont make it. Lastly, you need opportunities for development, and they are much more in India and China than in Japan and Poland.

Lastly, a country's internal issues hardly matter when you consider its potential to be on top of the list. Its the leaders, the corporations etc that really do matter. After all a number 1 country is powerful militarily, politically and economically.

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 12:25 am 
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mfreak wrote:
Quote:
8. LOLINDIA. Perhaps if their government was run properly and their people weren't still publicly defecating everywhere.


Its true that a lot of people are poor in India, but to say people are publicly defecating everywhere is idiotic.

Show some *CENSORED* respect you moron. There is no reason to talk trash about another country, even if you dont like it, and something that is false. Just because you have seen Slumdog Millionaire does not make you an expert on India.

Lastly, You could debate, and get your point across without disrespecting others.


I don't find that India is a serious competitor until the fix their internal issues. Yes, public defecation does happen, but perhaps not everywhere. My whole point with saying that was not aimed to attack India, only to put in the point that it is a broken country atm.



All things that the Americans AREN'T doing? Yes they're influencing other countries, every country in the top 10 atm is doing that, America is probably the most forceful about it. You assume that America will stand idly by as India and China both expand their markets. Don't lecture me on debate when you have 3 variables, and you focus on 2 assuming 1 stays stagnant. It's utterly ridiculous when people talk to me and are like: "OH MAN LOOK AT CHINA GOING UP IN THE CHARTS! LOL THEY'RE GOING TO BEAT AMERICA BECAUSE THEY'RE IN SA AND AFRICA!"

We were there long before the Chinese and have our own grasp on it, which will expand, perhaps faster.

The European Union is floundering, and you think Poland is going to sit idly by? With the EU going down, it gives Poland its chance to grab the resources it needs from Europe with a lower pricetag. And if dependence on resources outside of the country were really a factor, then the US would be in a dire situation considering our imports vs our exports.

As for Japan, the labor force is going to be taken care of by the robots they're designing to do so. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they began automating their armies as well. They're already creating robots for the sole purpose of helping their army fight. Also, Poland is becoming a massive production powerhouse. Last I checked, the last massive production powerhouse pumped out an army that startled the Germans and won WW2 and utterly surprised the Japanese.

And internal issues matter on a big scale when you have the possibility of a huge revolution brewing inside your country. Read Chinese history and you'll know exactly why I point out that they're going to have to go through widespread changes or face a MAJOR storm of dissatisfied people.


In conclusion, I apologize outright for my India comment offending you. It's just that I can't take a country seriously until its Government and Economy can raise its standard of living to the point of sanity. Sadly that hasn't happened in a lot of India yet. I would love for it to happen though.

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 12:56 am 
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I don't find that India is a serious competitor until the fix their internal issues. Yes, public defecation does happen, but perhaps not everywhere. My whole point with saying that was not aimed to attack India, only to put in the point that it is a broken country atm.


India is by no means a broken country. Poor people dont equal a broken country. India has a democratic system in place, and yes its not perfect, but that does not mean you can break the system. Going by your analogy I see a lot of Americans dissatisfied with the government, the occupy wall street people protesting, increased policing which some quarters support and some condemn, increasing xenophobia and hatred of multiculturalism and globalization, increasing unemployment and poverty. I see a broken country right there. Cuz your own people cant stand together on many of your issues. But no that isnt true. In a democracy expecting solidarity is utopia.


Quote:
All things that the Americans AREN'T doing? Yes they're influencing other countries, every country in the top 10 atm is doing that, America is probably the most forceful about it. You assume that America will stand idly by as India and China both expand their markets. Don't lecture me on debate when you have 3 variables, and you focus on 2 assuming 1 stays stagnant. It's utterly ridiculous when people talk to me and are like: "OH MAN LOOK AT CHINA GOING UP IN THE CHARTS! LOL THEY'RE GOING TO BEAT AMERICA BECAUSE THEY'RE IN SA AND AFRICA!"

We were there long before the Chinese and have our own grasp on it, which will expand, perhaps faster.



First off, I never said America will sit idly by, as China and India expand. But fact remains that China and India do have plans to expand, and that they are. America is the only country that is the most influential today, BECAUSE of its industrial and financial power. Yes, it will continue to be that powerhouse in the future, but that does not mean that China, India, Brazil and Russia wont have more importance and stature in the world. We are talking about a 100 years down the line, and if you see the US a 100 years before, it had the same living standards that India had. In another 100 years India, China etc wont be what they are today. They will be much bigger, more powerful and much more richer. Given this scenario, the US will no longer be able to influence countries as much as it does today since power HAS to be shared and WILL be. The US has to find another way, a more cooperative and inclusive way of handling world politics. And this is why in another 100 years, the US will be accompanied by China, India, Russia and Brazil as the worlds top countries. To think that the situation will always remain the same with the US on top is naive.

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The European Union is floundering, and you think Poland is going to sit idly by? With the EU going down, it gives Poland its chance to grab the resources it needs from Europe with a lower pricetag. And if dependence on resources outside of the country were really a factor, then the US would be in a dire situation considering our imports vs our exports.


What are you talking about? Poland is a member of the EU. If the EU goes down, does it not mean Poland goes down too? Or atleast feels the effects? Also, the US is quite gifted with natural resources, so you cant compare the US with poland and Japan, who depend mostly on imports. Also the case of the United States is quite different. They have their grasp on other country's natural resources in a big way, through its industries.

Quote:
As for Japan, the labor force is going to be taken care of by the robots they're designing to do so. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they began automating their armies as well. They're already creating robots for the sole purpose of helping their army fight. Also, Poland is becoming a massive production powerhouse. Last I checked, the last massive production powerhouse pumped out an army that startled the Germans and won WW2 and utterly surprised the Japanese.


Replacing labor force with robts doesnt really mean anything - every modern industry is doing that. As for robot soldiers LOL. That will probably never happen atleast in the next 100 years. Robots cant make the decisions humans do. Even if they can, you are talking science fiction. Am not gonna consider that argument valid. Though I have to say that every country, that has a strong army does use some form of robots. UAVs, Unmanned vehicles etc., Even India has and develops systems like that. So, I dont think the Japanese are gonna get ahead of everyone and have Androids fighting for them.

Quote:
And internal issues matter on a big scale when you have the possibility of a huge revolution brewing inside your country. Read Chinese history and you'll know exactly why I point out that they're going to have to go through widespread changes or face a MAJOR storm of dissatisfied people.


Internal issues matter, when its a revolution, like in Iran in 1979, or in Syria Now. Fortunately, India doesnt face that scenario, nor does China. Yes China might face a major storm of dissatisfied people, but I am sure they will make changes as and when required to keep the status quo. They did open up their economy didnt they? And did pull a huge amount of people out of poverty. These internal issues, normally get violent and debilitating when there is external intervention. Countries like India and China cannot be externally influenced, because...well I dont know about China, but atleast in India nationalism is quite close to people's hearts despite the lack of solidarity you might find, which is solely due to diversity.

Quote:
In conclusion, I apologize outright for my India comment offending you. It's just that I can't take a country seriously until its Government and Economy can raise its standard of living to the point of sanity. Sadly that hasn't happened in a lot of India yet. I would love for it to happen though.


Apologies accepted, no biggie. I am not saying India is at the top right now. India is one of those countries with a large economy, a large army and a large potential for development. Like I said before, if you take developed countries with a HDI of 0.8 or over, and go back a 100 years, you will find their standard of living was the same as India's today. Industrialization in India began after 1990. In 20 years, the amount of development I have personally seen around the place I live is HUGE. Therefore, in another 100 years, you will have to take India seriously. Its inevitable.

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:31 am 
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1. Health system is failing? Let's talk about the scary sides of your universal healthcare systems like the fact a lot of people are getting stuck on waiting lists and dying. I think if we actually took a deeper look we could find more people dying in the universal healthcare systems than in America.

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talking about something which clearly isnt true. USA has dropped since. you will also find a trend with developed countries which are on that list. they all have universal healthcare

>source i lifted it from

http://www.commonwealthfund.org/News/Ne ... eaths.aspx

2. Awwl, I'll have to concede. Our education system doesn't quite make sense because the federal government keeps getting in the way. I do say that at a state levels, there are some pretty good education systems going on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Level_of_s ... ted_States
alright, reading through this wikipage has made me embarassed for humanity. i drop the allegations purely because there are masses of ignorants everywhere.

3. Economies go up and down bro, there's a rebound already beginning that could be taken advantage of if our president wasn't such a moron. We'll see what happens come election.
how enlightening. accepting failure of economies as it should just happen. no ones fault. faltering economies ruins livelihoods, that make people evicted from their homes after spending years attempting to pay off the mortgage. its good to see that you can see past that and just ignore the losses and continue upon the path of self destruction once more!

4. And you're saying that european/australian politics aren't as bad, if not worse?

im saying that they at least have a middle ground to come too, that compromises can be reached, take the debt ceiling raise issue. its happened every year to account of USA's growing size and need. many cherished republicans have raised the debt ceiling almost as many times as i have fingers yet they decide to suddenly crush obama for hijinks, for apparent moral high ground while gambling with USA's future recovering by rsking the triple A credit rating.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_for_Tax_Reform
see: stubborness which will never remove the deficit. (also see the recent proposed plan from the GOP which allows the loop holes which mean romney gets ~14% tax whereas middle and low income earners suffer the losses.

5. Baseless statement. "Many" I stopped reading after that.

http://www.hiphopmusic.com/2009/07/moon ... _poll.html
more than one in twenty do not believe the moon landing happened.

Quote:
>Federal officials either assisted in the 9/11 attacks or took no action to prevent them because they wanted the United States to go to war in the Middle East.
59% "not likely"
20% "somewhat likely"
16% "very likely"
>The collapse of the twin towers in New York was aided by explosives secretly planted in the two buildings.
77% "unlikely"
10% "somewhat likely"
6% "very likely"

Scripps Howard poll regarding 911

i stopped reading after you stopped based on the word 'many'. jk. imma continue to point out why im right and you are wrong.


6. Debt could be solved if our president was willing.
he offered tax raises, and plenty of program killing. got shut down because taxes mean he is a dirty dirty communist. cant do anything when

Quote:
In the 112th Congress serving from 2011-2, 238 members of the U.S. House of Representatives - a majority of that body - as well as 41 members of the U.S. Senate have signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.[7] All except 13 sitting Republicans have signed the pledge, while three Democrats have signed it


7. China isn't a brutally competitive nation, they're more focused inward than outward.
you say that, but you do realise that US aircraft carriers were called in because china wanted more of the nearby sea to itself even though it is clearly not under the juristiction of china.

you say that, but you do realise how many other developing countries are buddies with china because china gave them some guns.

you say that but you do realise that a study by the australian government recomended strengthening military strength in order to pacify or at least ward off china's advance and growth and power in south east asia.


8. LOLINDIA. Perhaps if their government was run properly and their people weren't still publicly defecating everywhere.

10th largest in gdp
3rd largest in ppp
3rd largest free standing army
owns NUKES


Right. That's out of my system.

First of all, when we're talking about who's going to be awesome by the end of the century, why is it that no one talks about Poland or Japan?

Poland is between two enemies that it dislikes for good reasons, and is becoming a production monster in order to feel safe again.

Japan is creating mechanized workers that can deal with all of their trashy jobs and focusing in hard on their education to produce one hell of a breed of smart engineers.

Both are 2 countries that everyone is sorely underestimating.

Second of all, while America is having issues right now, what guarantees these will be issues forever? I think your liberal mind is making you a bit too narrow MrDucky. Right now America is the boss of the world. Why? We control all the trading routes by sea with our unmatched Navy. We control space by our massive array of satellites and space exploration funding. We control the air by our unmatched Airforce.

Our economy is reeling but we have a capitalist system, so it'll have its ups and downs. For those reasons alone guarantee America's rightful spot for having this entire century to themselves.

China being a competitor? Let's not begin on all the internal issues they have, like a populace that they may not be able to feed correctly, or the growing problem that more and more of their provinces are begging to become more of capitalist societies like Hong Kong. Not to mention all of the leaders have sent their children to America for college and they're now coming back with ideas to change China into something their parents may/may not want.

Chew on that for a bit Mrducky. I'd like you to tell me why you didn't include Poland or Japan :)

Poland - growth rate cant be matched for match with other countries.
Japan - can be big, not big enough to be THE large player, their non individualistic society however means they wont catch on fire and burn like some other players out there.
they face a massive problem of overaging population. they are too effing good. life expectancy wayyy high. unless they manage to deal with a large chunk of their population as non working elderly, i cant see how they can roll out other countries when they send frail old people since japan will be full of them.

i could have included germany. they run like clockwork, still have nationalistic sense of pride despite ww2. also they are basically carrying most of europe on their backs right now and dont seem to be tanking.

as for the chinese problem, reform will happen, but that doesnt mean their monumental growth will be stopped. USA's growth. 4%. thats good. china's growth. 4%. thats recession. perhaps china will change, but perhaps that change is what results in it becoming the major player. you dont know big until you have driven on a shanghainese freeway for over an hour and you are still surrounded by dense high rise all around you.

if there is a chinese revolution, if they come through without morons in charge, then the manufacturing is still there, the satisfied middle class will grow from it, purchasing power grows from its middle class (the chinese middle class is already massive). imo. a shift in china will be positive, any losses felt to china would also be felt by USA due to the increasingly interconnectedness of their markets.

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 Post subject: Re: Will USA remain #1 by the end of the 21st century
PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2012 5:56 am 
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I did not read everyones posts. :P

Alright, in my opinion I don't even think the U.S will remain the super power for another 30 years let alone a century. That is unless we change our foreign policy from being imperialistic fools (Which we started in the 50's to fight communism under Trumans 'Containment plan') But we really need to wake up.

Seriously though? Its not the cold war anymore we don't have to have troops in every country in the world, why can we just pull out of places like Germany Japan and take out at least some of the troops on the north korean/south korean border.
I don't think Germany is going to try and spread facism through a world war anytime soon and the state of Russia is proof that Communism lost. So why do we have to have troops everywhere?

I almost wish the Cold War lasted longer, that way the U.S would invest more money into its space program instead of involving itself in every other nation, we spend about a trillion dollars a year in our foreign policy alone. If all that money was put into NASA we would have colony's on Mars!

Its all about priority's and America has lost there sense of what is important.

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